Joseph: "North Korea Has No Will for Denuclearization"
Believes North Korea Can Be Deterred
Delury: "Trump May Set North Korean Nuclear Freeze as Negotiation Goal"
As the possibility arises that the North Korean nuclear issue may be discussed at a South Korea-U.S. summit that could take place as early as this month, a former high-ranking U.S. diplomatic official has suggested that the United States may in effect tolerate North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons.
Robert Joseph, who served as Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security during the George W. Bush administration, made this claim during an online seminar on Korean Peninsula security hosted by the Washington Times Foundation, which was released on August 5 (local time).
Joseph believes that North Korea has no intention of halting its development of nuclear weapons and missiles. He stated, "I think there is a possibility that the United States will acquiesce (to abandoning North Korea's denuclearization)," adding, "There is a possibility that we will say we can live with a nuclear-armed North Korea."
He explained, "Whether they possess 200 or 400 warheads, we have ten times more, so we can deter North Korea."
His remarks suggest that a realist view is emerging within the United States that accepts North Korea's nuclear capability as something that can be deterred and proposes coexistence.
However, Joseph noted that there has not been any actual discussion within the U.S. government about formally accepting North Korea's nuclear status.
He added, however, that in the case of Iran's nuclear issue, he has seen some officials in the U.S. Department of Defense suggest that it would be possible to live with a nuclear-armed Iran.
Expectations for North Korea's denuclearization have become even lower. Kim Yo-jong, Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea, stated in a commentary on July 29 that while the relationship between North Korea and the United States is not bad, there is a clear line drawn against denuclearization talks.
John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies, also said that President Donald Trump may set as his practical goals not progress on denuclearization but rather the suspension of North Korea's military support for Russia and a freeze on its nuclear weapons program in his diplomacy with North Korea.
Professor Delury further pointed out that if the United States excessively demands that South Korea choose between the U.S. and China, it could actually drive South Korea closer to China. This is interpreted as a warning that excessive pressure on the alliance could backfire.
He said, "If a situation arises where China invades Taiwan and a full mobilization is required, South Korea will become a 'loyal ally' of the United States, if only for its own interests. But until it reaches that stage, South Korea would prefer good relations between the U.S. and China," adding, "I don't see a significant difference between conservatives and progressives on this point."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
