[Peninsula 3.0] Lee Administration Revives Diplomatic and Security "Memory"... Peace Puzzle Entrusted to Veterans

Seeking a New "Path for the Two Koreas" Toward Coexistence on the Peninsula
A Clever Solution Needed to Break the Inter-Korean Deadlock
No Response from the North, and Securing Leadership in Dialogue Remains Difficult

Editor's NoteThe international situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula is in turmoil. North Korea, once the target of unification, has declared itself an "antagonistic separate state" and is preparing for a complete severance of ties. The United States, South Korea's blood ally, is presenting economic and security demands amid its strategic competition with China. The Lee Jae Myung administration was launched under the dual challenge of having to find breakthroughs in both diplomacy with the United States and policy toward North Korea amid these turbulent times. In three parts, this series will analyze the "Korean Peninsula 3.0 Strategy" that the Lee administration is expected to pursue, following the division, war, and Cold War era (1.0) since 1945 and the era of reconciliation and conflict since the 1990s (2.0).

Yonhap News Agency

With the completion of confirmation hearings for the Lee Jae Myung administration's first cabinet, the framework of the first-term diplomatic and security team is effectively taking shape. The key word uniting Lee Jae Myung's core diplomatic and security appointments is "veteran." Centered on Wi Sung Rak, Director of the National Security Office (71), and Lee Jong Seok, Director of the National Intelligence Service (67)?both appointed by President Lee on his first day in office?seasoned aides with decades of experience in diplomacy and North Korea policy have been assembled. Drawing on their extensive experience and proven capabilities, they have been tasked with high-level North Korea policy missions amid rapidly changing global circumstances such as U.S.-China conflict and disruptions to the liberal international order.

Return of the "Jung Dong Young-Lee Jong Seok" Duo for North Korea Policy

The most notable appointments are the combination of Lee Jong Seok, Director of the National Intelligence Service, and Jung Dong Young, nominee for Minister of Unification (72), who have joined forces once again to resolve the six-year complete severance in inter-Korean relations since 2019. Both served as the 31st (Jung Dong Young) and 32nd (Lee Jong Seok) Ministers of Unification in the Roh Moo Hyun administration, working together to promote inter-Korean dialogue. The "September 19 Joint Statement (2005)" achieved during the Six-Party Talks at that time included North Korea's commitment to abandon nuclear weapons and return to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which surprised the world. Jung, as a special envoy of the president, also visited North Korea and held a one-on-one meeting with Kim Jong Il, the father of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Chun Hae Sung, Special Advisor to the Director of the National Intelligence Service, and Kim Nam Joong, Vice Minister of Unification, are also "North Korea experts" who gained experience during previous periods of inter-Korean dialogue.

The diplomatic team is filled with career diplomats. Wi Sung Rak, Director of the National Security Office, and Cho Hyun, Minister of Foreign Affairs, both joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (then the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) in 1979. Wi has served as Director-General for North American Affairs, Minister for Political Affairs at the Korean Embassy in the United States, Chief Representative to the Six-Party Talks, Chief Negotiator for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs, and Ambassador to Russia, and has been President Lee's diplomatic advisor since his presidential candidacy. He is known for his cautious approach, preferring to build a solid foundation rather than pursue hasty progress, and is classified as a "pro-alliance" figure due to his deep understanding of U.S. diplomacy. Cho is also recognized as a well-rounded diplomat with experience in both bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, and is considered well-suited to pursue pragmatic diplomacy by balancing the Korea-U.S. alliance and Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation. As Korean Peninsula issues can no longer be resolved solely between the two Koreas, President Lee's intention to seek breakthroughs through diplomacy with neighboring countries is evident in these appointments.

Frozen Inter-Korean Relations... President Lee: "Recognize North Korea's Existence"

In December 2023, North Korea designated the two Koreas as "antagonistic separate states." All communication channels between the two Koreas are currently completely severed. The so-called "pink phone" channel with the United Nations Command (UNC) remains open, but North Korea is not responding at all. Even after the launch of the Lee Jae Myung administration, which has put "dialogue advocates" at the forefront, North Korea only responded proportionally to the South's suspension of loudspeaker broadcasts, showing no further reaction. The United Front Department, North Korea's main agency for South Korea policy, no longer exists. North Korea is also highly isolated in the international community due to its illegal military cooperation with Russia. For the first time since joining in 2000, North Korea did not participate in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) this year, its only multilateral engagement. The once-advancing inter-Korean relations under the Moon Jae In administration have regressed under the Yoon Suk Yeol administration.

Given these "worst-case" inter-Korean relations, what "new path" will the Lee Jae Myung administration choose to open the door to dialogue? At a press conference marking his 30th day in office on July 3, President Lee hinted, "If possible, let's recognize (North Korea's) existence and pursue a path that benefits both sides." He stated, "Even our Constitution does not call for absorption (unification), but rather 'pursues peaceful unification.' If the goal is not annihilation, then within a safe framework, we should pursue a mutually beneficial path, and the means for this are dialogue, communication, cooperation, and coexistence."

President Lee Jae Myung is announcing the first personnel appointments of the new administration at the Presidential Office building in Yongsan, Seoul, on the 4th. From left to right: Lee Jong Seok, nominee for Director of the National Intelligence Service; Kim Min Seok, nominee for Prime Minister; President Lee; Kang Hoon Sik, Chief of the Presidential Secretariat; Wi Sung Rak, Director of the National Security Office; Hwang In Kwon, Chief of the Presidential Security Service. Photo by Yonhap News

Despite Willingness for "Dialogue"... South Korea Has Lost Initiative in Inter-Korean Relations

The government's consideration of changing the name of the Ministry of Unification is also seen as groundwork to bring North Korea back to the dialogue table. Rather than emphasizing unification, which lacks feasibility amid severed inter-Korean ties, the government is taking a step-by-step approach, starting with practical exchanges and cooperation. Drawing on the example of Germany, which changed its "All-German Ministry" to the "Ministry for Intra-German Relations" under the Brandt administration in 1969, the government is considering names such as "Ministry of Inter-Korean Exchange" or "Ministry of the Korean Peninsula."

However, despite the new administration's willingness for dialogue, there is widespread skepticism about whether tangible results can be achieved. South Korea has effectively lost its initiative in dialogue with North Korea amid the dynamics among the United States, Russia, and China. North Korea is openly strengthening its ties with Russia, and former U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed, "I know Kim Jong Un better than anyone." Unlike the Moon Jae In administration, when South Korea served as a bridge for North Korea-U.S. dialogue, the current situation is far more challenging, as South Korea must now seek to resolve severed inter-Korean relations by prioritizing North Korea-U.S. dialogue.