[Good Morning Market] Tariff Shock Confirmed by Inflation... Will U.S. Tech Stocks Lead the Rally?

On July 16, the domestic stock market is expected to rise, led by the semiconductor sector, reflecting the strength of U.S. technology stocks such as Nvidia. However, the impact of tariffs, as confirmed by inflation indicators, is considered a variable.

Previously, on July 15 (local time), the New York stock market opened higher, led by technology stocks, buoyed by the approval for Nvidia to sell its H20 chips in China. However, the market ended mixed as the impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump was reflected in the rebound of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is focused on blue-chip stocks, fell by 436.36 points (0.98%) to close at 44,023.29. The S&P 500, which tracks large-cap stocks, dropped by 24.8 points (0.4%) to 6,243.76. The Nasdaq, which is centered on technology stocks, rose by 37.47 points (0.18%) to finish at 20,677.8.

Reuters Yonhap News

Lee Sunghoon, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "Expectations for a possible easing of U.S. export restrictions to China have come into focus, leading to strong gains in semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia (up 4.04%), AMD (up 6.41%), and Broadcom (up 1.94%)." He added, "Today, the domestic stock market is also expected to see strength in the semiconductor sector, reflecting the sharp rise in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (up 1.27%) amid expectations for easing export restrictions to China."

The KOSPI index has surpassed 3,200 at the close for the first time in about four years, leaving about 100 points to reach its all-time high of 3,305.21. Kim Jiweon, a researcher at KB Securities, commented, "While there are concerns about inflation, positive factors such as favorable news for semiconductors and inflows of foreign capital are having a positive effect," expressing an optimistic outlook.

However, the fact that the rise in the previous day's U.S. CPI was concentrated in items with high tariff impact is expected to weigh on the stock market. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks also saw selling pressure in the latter part of the session following news that a procedural vote in the U.S. House of Representatives had failed.

The iM Securities Research Center stated, "The U.S. inflation indicators confirm an increase in the impact of tariffs, and concerns about tariffs and net interest margins have become more pronounced in the earnings announcements of U.S. financial companies, resulting in an overall increase in macroeconomic burdens." The center predicted that the domestic stock market would open lower. However, it also noted, "Ample liquidity is supporting the index through individual investors' buying, which is a positive factor," and explained, "It is important to pay attention to the earnings announcements of major companies such as ASML and the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) today."