Uncertain Majority for Ruling Parties in Japan's Upper House Election... Ishiba in Crisis

There are growing predictions that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will lose the upcoming House of Councillors (Upper House) election in Japan on July 20, making it difficult to maintain a majority of seats.

The Asahi Shimbun reported, based on the results of a nationwide telephone poll of 12,188 voters conducted from July 13 to 14, that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is unlikely to achieve his goal of maintaining a majority in the Upper House.

Shigeru Ishiba, Prime Minister of Japan. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

In this election, the LDP is projected to win around 34 seats (ranging from 27 to 39), while its coalition partner Komeito is expected to secure around 9 seats (ranging from 6 to 12). The opposition parties are expected to win the following: the Constitutional Democratic Party 22 to 31 seats, the Democratic Party for the People 12 to 21 seats, and the Sanseito 10 to 19 seats.

The total number of seats in the Upper House is 248, with half of the members, who serve six-year terms, elected every three years. In this election, 125 seats are up for grabs, including one vacant seat. For the two ruling parties to maintain a majority in the Upper House, they need to secure 50 seats in this election in addition to the 75 seats held by members not up for election this time. Previously, the LDP and Komeito held 52 and 14 of the seats up for election, respectively.

However, the Asahi Shimbun added that, at the time of the survey, 40% of voters had not yet decided whom to support, indicating that the outcome could still change.

The Sankei Shimbun also reported, based on a telephone survey conducted with Fuji News Network (FNN) from July 12 to 13 and additional local coverage, that the ruling parties may fail to maintain a majority in the Upper House. It is estimated that the LDP and Komeito will win only 40 seats.

This Upper House election serves as a midterm evaluation of the Ishiba Cabinet. If the ruling parties fail to secure a majority, Prime Minister Ishiba could face calls for responsibility and may be at risk of having to resign. Previously, in October last year, the LDP and Komeito suffered a crushing defeat in the House of Representatives election, resulting in an opposition majority in the lower house.