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BAI: Heatwave Deaths Could Increase 30-Fold by 2080... KDCA Must Improve Analysis Methods

Mental Health and Meteorological Disasters Should Be Included in Climate Health Impact Assessments
KDCA's Pathogen Acquisition and Resource Management Also Found Lacking
BAI Instructs Shift Toward Future Risk Prediction in Analysis Methods
MOIS Notified: "Designation and Operation of Heatwave Shelters Must Be Rationally Improved"

The Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) has pointed out the need for rational improvements to the climate health impact assessment system, which predicts the effects of climate change, as well as to the process of securing and utilizing pathogens for responding to emerging infectious diseases, following an audit of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) and the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS) regarding their adaptation and response to the climate crisis. The BAI also noted that the designation and operation of heatwave shelters should be improved to better address heatwave response.

BAI: Heatwave Deaths Could Increase 30-Fold by 2080... KDCA Must Improve Analysis Methods Yonhap News Agency

On July 15, the BAI announced the results of this audit conducted on the KDCA and MOIS. This marks the fourth audit related to "Adaptation and Response to the Climate Crisis," with a focus on response areas such as emerging diseases.


First, the BAI notified the KDCA that it should rationally improve its climate health impact assessment system, which currently excludes mental health and meteorological disasters from its scope of analysis and only analyzes past trends without future projections. The BAI pointed out, "The United States, United Kingdom, and Canada include mental health and meteorological disasters in their climate health impact assessments, in addition to temperature, air quality, and infectious diseases. However, the KDCA excluded mental health and meteorological disasters, citing budget constraints."


The BAI further added, "Due to budget constraints, the KDCA failed to predict future heatwave damages or the scale of infectious disease outbreaks, merely compiling simple statistics such as the number of deaths and reported cases of infectious diseases over the past ten years, thereby losing the utility of this data as a basis for preparing for future risks." According to the BAI's analysis, under certain scenarios, the number of heatwave-related deaths in 2080 is projected to be 30 times higher than in the 2010s, while the number of medical visits for scrub typhus and enteritis patients is expected to increase by 18.6 times and 4.3 times, respectively, compared to recent years by 2080.


The BAI also notified the KDCA that it must rationally improve its pathogen resource management system, as the agency has not actively provided pathogens secured during its operations to the National Pathogen Resource Bank, and the analysis, evaluation, and utilization of pathogens in its possession have been delayed for extended periods. The BAI determined, "The KDCA lacked awareness that secured pathogens could be utilized as resources, and it failed to establish a cooperative system for sharing pathogens with the National Institute of Infectious Diseases under the National Institute of Health, which operates the bank."


As a result, the BAI confirmed that the KDCA had not provided the bank with 2,229 strains of Campylobacter pathogens (which cause acute gastroenteritis, among other illnesses) and 115 strains of Vibrio pathogens (which cause Vibrio sepsis, among other illnesses) isolated from humans. As of June last year, the National Pathogen Resource Bank was found to be storing 25,206 out of a total of 33,157 strains without analysis or evaluation. At an average annual processing rate of 562 strains, this equates to 45 years' worth of work.


The preservation and utilization of pathogen resources, as well as the listing of resources in the management inventory, were also found to be insufficient. The National Pathogen Resource Bank lists and manages pathogens recognized as having preservation value after quality verification. However, as of June 2024, 3,471 strains?43% of the 7,951 listed?could not be cultured or provided to third parties, rendering them unusable.


The BAI stated, "The KDCA Commissioner has been notified to actively provide pathogens secured during operations to the National Pathogen Resource Bank, to promptly carry out analysis, evaluation, and utilization of pathogens in its possession, and to establish rational improvements to the pathogen resource management system."


Regarding the MOIS, the BAI confirmed that one of the core projects for heatwave countermeasures?the designation of heatwave shelters?has been focused mainly on senior centers without considering regional characteristics such as the distribution of heat-vulnerable populations. The BAI analyzed the correlation between the number of energy voucher recipients (2.04 million people) in 252 cities, counties, and districts nationwide and the capacity of heatwave shelters in each local government, finding a correlation coefficient of 0.18. This led to the conclusion that heatwave shelters are being operated without consideration for regional heatwave vulnerability.


The BAI stated, "The MOIS has been notified to consider regional heatwave vulnerability, such as the distribution of heat-vulnerable populations, when designating heatwave shelters, and to designate a variety of facility types as shelters to improve user convenience, thereby rationally improving the designation and operation of heatwave shelters."


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