[Click e-Stock] "Trump's Tariff Policy Enters Resolution Phase Rather Than Risk Expansion"

Regarding U.S. President Donald Trump sending a tariff letter to the leaders of 12 countries, including South Korea, iM Securities stated on the 8th, "Although tariff-related uncertainty has resurfaced, there will be no shock," and analyzed, "July marks the beginning of a full-fledged resolution phase, rather than a period of spreading reciprocal tariff risks."

On this day, Park Sanghyun, a researcher at iM Securities, said, "The tariff rates notified through the letter are not significantly different from those in early April, and the likelihood of a tariff shock similar to what occurred in April is low," explaining the company's view.

According to the tariff letter President Trump sent to South Korea, starting from August 1, a flat 25% tariff will be imposed on South Korean products. In the case of the 25% tariff rate notified to the governments of South Korea and Japan, South Korea's rate is the same as the 25% announced on April 9, while Japan's rate has been raised by 1 percentage point from 24%. Similar letters were sent to five other countries, including Malaysia.

Researcher Park emphasized, "Through the details of the tariff negotiations with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, as well as this tariff letter, the outline of the reciprocal tariff framework desired by the Trump administration has become somewhat clear."

He first noted, "Although reciprocal tariff rates of 25% were notified to South Korea and Japan, Vietnam's reciprocal tariff rate was set at 20%," and predicted, "The maximum reciprocal tariff rate for major trading partner countries is likely to be 20%."

He also predicted that certain items subject to high tariffs, such as automobiles (25%) and steel and aluminum (50% each), would be excluded from the tariff negotiations. From the perspectives of South Korea and Japan, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will ease the tariff rate on automobiles, which is the most sensitive item. In addition, there is a possibility that some countries may face high retaliatory tariffs as an example. President Trump has also stated that an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on BRICS countries that support anti-U.S. policies.

Researcher Park added, "It is true that tariff uncertainty has increased again in the short term due to the sending of the tariff letter, but a tariff agreement with the European Union (EU) is imminent, and the deadlines for tariff negotiations with major countries have been extended," and concluded, "Tariff uncertainty is unlikely to significantly shake financial markets."