[Global Focus] Syria Emerges onto the World Stage after Decades

Signs of Geopolitical Realignment in the Middle East
Sparks of Economic Reconstruction in Syria
A Global Crossroads for Refugee Policy

US President Donald Trump and Syrian President Ahmed Alshara are shaking hands at the Saudi Arabian royal palace on May 14th (local time). This took place during President Trump's 'Middle East tour.' Photo by AP Yonhap News

"The national emergency declared by Executive Order 13338 on May 11, 2004 (Freezing the Assets of Certain Persons and Prohibiting the Export of Certain Goods to Syria) is hereby terminated, and the order is repealed."

On June 30 (local time), US President Donald Trump abruptly lifted the economic and financial sanctions on Syria that had been in place for 21 years. This bold move came just two months after he pledged to "give Syria a chance" during his Middle East tour in May. Syrian President Ahmed Alshara also responded by expressing his intention to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. However, Syria continues to face three major challenges that have accumulated under dictatorship and civil war: political instability, economic hardship, and the refugee crisis. According to the United Nations, 90% of Syria's population lives in poverty, and the national electricity supply averages only two hours per day.

Territory 1.85 Times the Size of South Korea, Population Less Than Half

Syria's territory covers 185,180 square kilometers, which is 1.85 times the size of South Korea. As of 2023, less than half (44.3%) of South Korea's population resides there. Known as a "strategic stronghold" in the Middle East, Syria has for decades been entangled in conflicts involving external powers such as Russia, Iran, T?rkiye, Israel, and the United States. The country also endured about 14 years of civil war under the two-generation dictatorship of the Al-Assad regime, which collapsed in December last year. The civil war evolved into a "proxy war" among major powers, prolonging the conflict through military and financial competition on both sides.

The first US sanctions against Syria date back 46 years. In the 1970s, before the effects of the Cold War faded globally, President Hafez Al-Assad, who came to power in Syria, sided with the Soviet Union, and in 1979, the US designated Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism. In 1983, Syria also clashed with the US during the Lebanese Civil War. Later, under the Obama administration in 2004, the US froze Syrian government assets and imposed export restrictions. Additional sanctions were imposed in 2011 when the Al-Assad regime continued its violent crackdown on anti-government protests. The year 2011 also marked the outbreak of the Syrian civil war.

The situation changed rapidly in December last year when President Alshara overthrew the Al-Assad regime and led the transfer of power. Operating under the name "Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani," he founded "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), which toppled the dictatorship in December last year. The historic image of President Alshara, once a wanted man by the US, shaking hands with President Trump at the Saudi Arabian royal palace on May 14, is expected to be remembered as a significant moment in history. According to the New York Times, after the summit, President Trump described President Alshara to reporters as "a young, charismatic tough guy" and "a warrior with a powerful past."

South Korea's establishment of diplomatic relations with Syria in the first half of this year is closely related to these developments. On April 10, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul made a secret visit to Damascus, the capital of Syria, and the two countries finally established diplomatic ties. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained, "By establishing diplomatic relations with Syria, which remained the only country without official ties after last year's normalization with Cuba, Korea has now established diplomatic relations with all 191 UN member states, marking a historic milestone."

Restoring Relations with Israel... Economic Reconstruction Remains a Challenge

Ahmed Alshara, President of Syria. Syria faces challenges in stabilizing its domestic situation, rebuilding its economy, and addressing refugee issues. Photo by AP Yonhap News

After brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, President Trump has made the "Abraham Accords" his next agenda. Syria is also one of the countries targeted by Israel for normalization of relations. Tom Barrack, President Trump's special envoy to Syria and US Ambassador to T?rkiye, said in an interview late last month, "President Alshara of Syria has made it clear that he does not hate Israel, holds no religious grudge against Israel, and desires peace along the border." He added, "What happened between Israel and Iran is an opportunity for all of us to say, 'Let's stop now and open a new path,'" and "The Middle East is ready to start a new dialogue."

Syria and Israel are now working to restore diplomatic relations, seemingly in response to US goodwill. Syrian Foreign Minister Assad Al-Shaibani expressed his willingness to cooperate with the US to restore the 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel. In a statement, Minister Shaibani relayed his conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, saying, "Damascus has expressed its expectation to cooperate with the US to restore the 1974 agreement." This agreement, under UN supervision, was intended to create a buffer zone to prevent military clashes between Syria and Israel. However, the Golan Heights has remained under effective Israeli control. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar also emphasized, "The Golan Heights will remain part of Israel," declaring that Israel has annexed the territory.

Following two generations of dictatorship and ongoing civil war, Syria's economy has been devastated. The United Nations previously estimated the cost of reconstruction at $250 billion (about 290 trillion won). The Al-Assad regime had estimated an even higher figure of $400 billion (about 450 trillion won). According to the World Bank, Syria's GDP in 2023 was approximately $21 billion, which is less than 20% of its pre-war level. According to AP, the UN estimates that 90% of Syria's population lives in poverty, and the national electricity supply averages only two hours per day. Private generators or solar alternatives are unaffordable for most people.

On a positive note, the lifting of US sanctions has increased the likelihood that foreign investment and reconstruction projects in Syria will begin in earnest. In fact, the United Kingdom also announced on July 5 that it had restored diplomatic relations with Syria. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Damascus for the first time in 14 years since diplomatic ties were severed and emphasized his support for national reconstruction. The UK also formalized a plan to provide 2 million pounds (about 3.7 billion won) to help the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) remove residual chemical weapons in Syria. However, there are concerns that increased investment in a country where the corrupt regime and structures remain unchanged could exacerbate imbalances and reignite conflicts.

Despite 'Premature' Controversy, Europe Races to Repatriate Refugees

As European countries that had accepted refugees before Syria's situation stabilized began to change their refugee policies, concerns about possible human rights violations have emerged. Once official diplomatic normalization with Syria begins, some European countries are likely to consider Syria a country to which refugees can be returned.

According to AFP and other outlets on July 3, Austria recently forcibly deported a 32-year-old Syrian man whose refugee status had been revoked due to a criminal conviction. This is the first case of forced deportation in Europe since the regime change in Syria and could influence other European Union (EU) countries. Human rights groups and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) have opposed such actions, pointing out that returning refugees exposes them to risks of torture, arrest, and poverty. The UNHCR stressed that "Syrians should not be forcibly returned to any part of their country from anywhere, including the EU," due to the overall situation in Syria.

Meanwhile, far-right parties with anti-refugee sentiment have rapidly gained ground in European countries that were initially most active in accepting refugees. According to The Guardian, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced on July 3 that Germany is working with Syria's new government to forcibly deport Syrian nationals convicted of crimes. Previously, the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees announced in December last year that it would suspend asylum reviews immediately after the civil war ended with a rebel victory.