"In the Worst Case, Population to Drop to 7.53 Million in 100 Years... 100 Workers to Support 140 Elderly"

Korea Institute for Future Population Studies Projects
Dramatic Population Decline in 2125
Support Ratio for the Elderly to Surpass Working-Age Population

If the current trend of population decline continues, it is projected that the population of South Korea will shrink to just 15% of its current size in 100 years, and by 2100, 100 people of working age will have to support 140 elderly people.

Newborns lie in beds in a hospital neonatal unit. Reference photo to aid understanding of the article. Photo by Asia Economy DB

The Korea Institute for Future Population Studies analyzed and presented population changes over the next 100 years (2025?2125) using the cohort-component method in its publication, "2025 Population Report: The Great Population Shift in South Korea," released on July 2. The cohort-component method is an internationally recognized population projection technique that predicts future levels of demographic factors such as births, deaths, and international migration, and then adds or subtracts these from the base population to calculate future population figures.

According to the report, South Korea's population in 2125 is expected to decrease to as low as 7.53 million, or 14.6% of the current 51.68 million, under the most extreme low scenario. The median scenario projects a population of 11.15 million, while even the most optimistic high scenario forecasts only 15.73 million, which is less than one-third of the current population.

The rate of population decline is expected to accelerate, with the median scenario projecting a 30% decrease by 2075, followed by a sharp drop of more than half by 2125. This acceleration is attributed to the shrinking number of people of childbearing age, which further speeds up the population decline.

As a result, the "ray-shaped" population structure of 2075 is expected to transform into a "cobra-shaped" structure by around 2125, with low population numbers across all age groups.

Population aging is also expected to progress rapidly. According to the report, by 2100, 100 people of working age (15?64 years old) will have to support 140 elderly people aged 65 or older, based on the low scenario. Currently, about 100 people of working age support 30 elderly people, but as the elderly population continues to grow, the number of dependents will eventually surpass the number of supporters, resulting in an "inverted pyramid" society.

Through this report, the institute proposed the following key policy directions: a dramatic expansion of support to reduce the burden of childbirth and childrearing; the practical establishment of a work?life balance culture; the extension of retirement age and the spread of continued employment systems; and the reform of immigration policies.