Japanese Seismologist Refutes 'July Great Earthquake' Prediction
"Predicting an Exact Date for an Earthquake? Only Fortune Tellers or Fraudsters"
"Even If It Happens... It's Just a Coincidence"
Japanese manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, who is known for having allegedly predicted the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, has made a new prediction that a tsunami three times larger than the one in 2011 will strike Japan on July 5. However, experts have dismissed the likelihood of such a massive earthquake, stating that the scientific probability is low.
According to Japanese media outlet Daily Shincho on July 2, the person who made the so-called 'July Great Earthquake' prediction is manga artist Ryo Tatsuki. In his 2021 book "The Future I Saw: Complete Edition," Tatsuki wrote that he had a dream in which "the seabed between Japan and the Philippines suddenly ruptured on July 5, 2025, causing a massive tsunami."
"The Future I Saw" was out of print after its initial release in early 1999. However, the phrase "A major disaster will occur in March 2011" printed on the book's cover drew renewed attention, and as the book was seen as having predicted the Great East Japan Earthquake, a complete edition was reissued in 2021.
In the book, Tatsuki described, "When the seabed ruptured in my dream, a tsunami three times the size of the one caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake struck the Pacific coast of Japan." At the end of the book, he also wrote, "I believe this will happen on July 5, 2025, counting from the date I had the dream."
This prediction has attracted global attention and has led to anxiety about traveling to Japan. Hong Kong-based low-cost carrier Greater Bay Airlines announced that, due to the spread of anxiety caused by the prediction, reservations have dropped by 30%. As a result, the airline will reduce its Hong Kong to Sendai and Hong Kong to Tokushima routes to once a week each. It has also been reported that reductions are being considered for other routes, such as Yonago Airport.
However, experts have drawn a clear line, stating that the 'July Great Earthquake' prediction has no scientific basis. Toshiya Nagao, a visiting professor at Tokai University and Shizuoka Prefectural University who specializes in earthquake prediction, said, "There are neither geological conditions nor volcanic activity in the sea area between Japan and the Philippines that would cause an earthquake," and added, "There have been no major earthquakes there in the past either."
Regarding the claim that "Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines will be connected by land due to the tsunami," Nagao dismissed it as "completely without scientific basis." He explained that tsunamis are caused by uplift or subsidence of the seabed and do not cause land to rise. He also added that even if a massive Nankai Trough earthquake were to occur, the likelihood of it causing a tsunami larger than the one in the Great East Japan Earthquake is extremely low.
Professor Nagao stated, "Only fortune tellers or fraudsters claim they can predict an exact date," and added, "While it is difficult to predict asteroids smaller than 1 km, the probability of such a celestial body falling into the sea is also extremely low." He emphasized, "With current scientific technology, it is impossible to predict the exact date of an earthquake or volcanic eruption. This is common knowledge among seismologists."
However, he also said, "It cannot be stated with absolute certainty that the probability of a major earthquake occurring on July 5 is zero." Professor Nagao explained, "The Nankai Trough megaquake occurs on average every 100 years, with the last one in 1946. The government has also announced that there is an 80% probability of it occurring within the next 30 years." He added, "If an earthquake does happen on July 5, it would only be a coincidence in hindsight."
Meanwhile, in his new book "Angel's Testament," published on June 15, Tatsuki retracted his earlier statement, saying, "The date July 5 seems to have come from a conversation about 'what if this happened,'" and "The day I had the dream is not necessarily the day the event will occur."
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