There is an analysis suggesting that President Donald Trump's airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which led to the involvement of Israel and Iran in war, has complicated China's calculations regarding the Taiwan issue.
President Trump has shown an isolationist tendency, being reluctant to intervene in complex international conflicts that are not directly related to U.S. interests, and demanding increased defense spending from allies by invoking the 'security free-rider' argument. It was expected that this stance would continue into his second term in office.
However, this recent attack on Iran demonstrated, contrary to expectations, that he is willing to engage in wars in distant countries.
As a result, major foreign media such as The New York Times reported on June 26 that China now faces a situation where it must reassess whether President Trump is willing to use military force in Asian regional disputes related to its core interests, such as the Taiwan issue or the South China Sea.
Jack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told The New York Times, "After the U.S. attack on Iran, Chinese leaders will be more anxious about testing President Trump’s resolve on Taiwan. Trump appears more willing to use force than many had predicted, but at the same time, his actions seem unpredictable, so caution is necessary."
Andrea Ghisell, who researches China’s Middle East policy at the University of Exeter in the UK, also said in an interview with foreign media, "They (the Chinese leadership) thought they would have a more transactional, pragmatic, and stable relationship with the U.S. during Trump’s second term, but that is not happening at all."
An anonymous U.S. official told foreign media that President Trump’s attack on Iran has overturned the perception within China that his threats do not need to be taken seriously, stating, "It has become clear that the view Trump would shrink from conflict is wrong, and this has partially restored deterrence against China."
Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the U.S. think tank Stimson Center, also said that Trump’s decision to attack Iran "raises a very big question mark" over the previous view that he would not intervene in China’s extensive territorial claims in Taiwan or the South China Sea, adding, "China will be more sober in making such assessments going forward."
She also said that China will now have to recalculate whether its 'gray zone' activities, including military operations near Taiwan, could provoke a reaction from Trump.
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