[Exclusive] Disappeared After a Single Report... As Korea Faces Aging, Transportation Strategy Is Missing [New Transportation Refugee Report] ③

The Future of Seoul - The Future of Transportation
'Land and Transportation Population Response Council' Dissolved After Only Six Months
Attempts to Link and Develop Transportation Policy with Social Structural Changes
Martial Law, Impeachment... Disbanded After Releasing Just One Report
Despite Population Decline and Aging, All Attention Focused on GTX

Editor's NoteSeoul, ranked 16th in the world for transportation accessibility, also faces significant disparities in access to transportation convenience. While the dramatic expansion of transportation networks has aimed for regional balance, it has resulted in overcrowding in some areas and blind spots in others. Despite 75 years of public transportation history and the advent of an era where artificial intelligence (AI) transportation systems are being established, transportation poverty persists. Transportation inequality leads to imbalances in quality of life. Asia Economy examined the reality of this issue and sought potential solutions.

The government's plan to establish a national mid- to long-term transportation policy linked to demographic changes has been scrapped. This was part of the previous administration's "land and transportation population response" strategy, which sought to approach transportation not as an independent, top-level regional policy, but rather from the perspective of "future policy demand changes" driven by low birth rates and an aging population.

The previous administration lost momentum for policy development from the outset due to the state of emergency and impeachment crisis, and the subsequent change of government led to the plan being abandoned altogether. However, the existing policy, which focused solely on mobility, has reached its limits, revealing shortcomings in land management. The Lee Jae-myung administration has also only drafted preliminary plans for individual issues such as autonomous driving and the expansion of the metropolitan express railroad (GTX) in the Seoul metropolitan area. Experts point out that, given the nature of the transportation sector?which requires not only massive budgets but also long periods for policy formulation and execution?discussions for future generations must begin without delay.

The 'Land and Transportation Population Response Council' Disappeared After a Single Research Report

According to government ministries and other sources on July 7, the "Land and Transportation Population Response Council," launched by the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in June last year, ended its activities after just six months. A senior government official stated, "This organization was created at the pan-government level immediately after President Yoon Suk-yeol declared an unprecedented national demographic emergency, with many related agencies participating to discuss new approaches to transportation policy linked to social issues. However, it was effectively dissolved after producing only one research report."

The initiative began on June 19, 2024, when former President Yoon presided over a meeting of the Presidential Committee on Low Fertility and Aging Society and declared a "national demographic emergency." At that time, he announced plans to mobilize a nationwide response system until the low birth rate problem was overcome and even mentioned the creation of a vice prime minister-level Population Strategy Planning Department.

Although the policy was largely a rehash and compilation of previous administrations' efforts, it had meaningful aspects. Within a week, the government established the "Land and Transportation Population Response Council" with the goal of examining how population decline and demographic imbalances caused by low birth rates and aging would affect key areas such as regional living patterns, housing types, transportation demand, and industrial competitiveness.

It is not the case that demographic changes were never reflected in the formulation of regional transportation expansion policies. However, even excluding social overhead capital (SOC) linkage projects, the government has spent an average of 10 trillion won annually on transportation policy, and the policy direction focused on "improving mobility convenience" has remained unchanged regardless of administration changes.

The "Land and Transportation Population Response Council" was different. To coordinate policies beyond just "mobility," it included private members of the Presidential Committee on Low Fertility and Aging Society and a 2030 advisory group composed of young people. This marked the creation of a large-scale government cooperation body with 44 participating experts. The council held its first meeting in July of the same year and continued advisory meetings focused on research projects until November. It also commissioned related research. The core idea was "policy demand tailored to population trends." The intention was to establish transportation policies reflecting the new demographic structure, thereby improving policy efficiency and reducing unnecessary investment spending.

However, the council lost its support amid the state of emergency and impeachment crisis. Official research ended internally in January of this year, and completed research projects are now at risk of being buried without disclosure. One participant in the council stated, "Unlike transportation policies linked to large-scale new town designations and other urban development, the council internally sought to identify variables that would transform cities and reflect them in transportation demand. Regardless of the political situation, discussions should have continued with sustainability for future generations in mind." Kim Jain, associate research fellow at the Korea Transport Institute, predicted, "Although there has never been a council with such an approach in any previous administration, the new government will also have to address these issues from a socially integrated perspective, considering low birth rates and aging."

Despite Population Decline, Aging, and Increasing Vacant Homes, Transportation Policy Remains Unchanged

The reason experts are emphasizing a major shift in national transportation administration is the rapid change in the transportation demand base. Even in Seoul, the most densely populated city, the population dropped below 10 million in 2016 and has continued to decline each year, reaching 9.33 million last year. In addition to the overall population decline, soaring housing prices have pushed Seoul residents into Gyeonggi Province and Incheon. However, even considering the population increase in Gyeonggi Province, the total population of the Seoul metropolitan area has continued to decrease.

Along with the population decline, aging has accelerated. According to government statistics, the number of Seoul residents aged 19 or younger is 1,197,536, which is fewer than the 1,212,605 residents aged 70 or older. In other words, there are more seniors aged 70 or older than teenagers and children in Seoul. As of last month, 19.8% (1.84 million people) of Seoul's population was over 65, and the city is expected to enter a "super-aged society" in July. By 2040, the proportion of those aged 65 or older is projected to reach one in three (31.6%).

Nevertheless, transportation policies in the Seoul metropolitan area have focused solely on "mobility." Both the Moon Jae-in and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations centered their metropolitan transportation policies on the expansion of the GTX. They concentrated on the opening of the GTX-A line and the promotion of the GTX-D, E, and F lines, and also proposed introducing regional express railroads (x-TX) in other areas.

Policies that failed to reflect demand have produced side effects. Contrary to expectations of "alleviating commuting congestion in the metropolitan area," concerns have arisen about regional imbalances. The logic is that as commuting distances to Seoul increase, population concentration in the metropolitan area accelerates even further.

As new transportation options are introduced, housing supply increases along those routes, attracting demand and worsening conditions in already underdeveloped areas. The polarization of real estate in Gyeonggi Province is a prime example. According to data released earlier this year by the Korea Construction Policy Research Institute, as of the end of 2023, there were 1,534,000 vacant homes nationwide, with Gyeonggi Province accounting for 18.6%?the highest proportion. Within Gyeonggi Province, the highest number of vacant homes was in Pyeongtaek (11.2%), followed by Hwaseong (8.1%), Bucheon (6.3%), Suwon (6.1%), and Namyangju (5%). Some of these areas were regions where transportation network expansion had been discussed.

In addition, the combination of low birth rates and aging has led to a "zero-sum game," where new transportation networks reduce the utilization of existing systems. This has resulted not only in administrative inefficiency due to overlapping subway and bus routes, but also in some metropolitan transportation systems operating at a deficit, requiring taxpayer subsidies.