Urgent Need for Structural Transformation Beyond Simple Pro-Natalist Policies
Only 8.34 Million Women of Childbearing Age Projected by 2039
Echo Boom Generation of 4.28 Million Represents the Last Opportunity
The number of women of childbearing age is structurally and rapidly declining, leading to an analysis that Korea faces a structural population decline crisis even if the birth rate improves by 2040. It is suggested that the so-called Echo Generation, which has now reached marriageable age, may represent the last opportunity to address Korea's demographic crisis. There are calls for new support policies that go beyond simple pro-natalist measures and offer structural solutions.
According to the report "Current Status and Problems of Korea's Population Structure" released by the National Assembly Futures Institute on June 19, as of 2024, Korea is the only country in the world with a total fertility rate in the 0 range, specifically 0.75. The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (ages 15-49). Even if the total fertility rate rises to the 1 range, the number of women of childbearing age itself is decreasing, resulting in a structural crisis where the actual number of births remains in the 200,000s. Korea is the only OECD country with a total fertility rate below 1, which is about half the OECD average of 1.43.
According to Statistics Korea's population projections, the total fertility rate is expected to fall to 0.65 in 2025 before gradually recovering to 1.05 by 2040. However, even if the total fertility rate recovers, the number of women of childbearing age will continue to decline, meaning the number of newborns will not increase. In 2003, the population of women of childbearing age was 13.76 million, but this has steadily decreased to 12 million in 2023. By 2039, when the total fertility rate is expected to recover to 1, the number of women of childbearing age will be about 8.34 million, or 75% of the current level. Therefore, even if the total fertility rate recovers, the number of babies born in 2039 will be around 234,000.
However, the report notes that there is still a window of opportunity to change the course of the population crisis.
The Echo Boom Generation (born 1991-1996), the children of the second baby boomers (born 1964-1974), has now reached marriageable age, which may represent the last chance to address the current demographic crisis. The decisions made by this cohort of 4.28 million people regarding childbirth and related issues over the next five to ten years could be a decisive factor in reshaping Korea's demographic structure. The report refers to this period as a "golden time," warning that if this opportunity is missed, recovery will become extremely difficult.
The research team at the Futures Institute emphasized that "it is impossible to solve the structural problems of the population with simple pro-natalist policies," stressing the need for a fundamental paradigm shift in policy. They suggested that "an integrated approach that considers economic, institutional, and cultural factors is necessary to expand the intention to have children, and that a flexible reform of marriage and family systems in line with sociocultural changes should be pursued simultaneously."
In this context, the team argued that as economic uncertainty increases, the intention to have children tends to decline, so strategies to enhance overall income levels, stabilize employment, and provide a foundation for economic security and growth are needed. In addition, they called for a comprehensive policy package to support work-life balance, such as parental leave systems, expansion of men's participation in caregiving, and greater flexibility in institutional frameworks to accommodate diverse family forms, including non-marital births.
Separately, the research team also stressed the need to prepare for a super-aged society. To this end, they suggested that employment policies for middle-aged and older workers should be redesigned, including continued employment policies, quality non-regular jobs, and customized job creation. They also emphasized the need to minimize labor market exits and maximize labor market entry for women of working age (15-64) affected by structural issues such as career interruptions, as well as to expand labor supply through immigration or the employment of foreign workers.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
