Counterpoint Research: "China Faces Challenges Such as Sluggish Domestic Demand"
Due to the impact of tariffs originating from the United States, global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to decrease by 1% this year. However, India is projected to record explosive double-digit growth this year, driven by export demand from Apple and Samsung.
On June 10, market research firm Counterpoint Research released its latest Global Smartphone Manufacturing Allocation Tracker Report, forecasting that global smartphone manufacturing output, which increased by 4% last year, will decrease by 1% this year compared to last year.
The report predicted that China would face difficulties, including a decline in production output and sluggish domestic market demand.
Ivan Lam, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, stated, "Although the global shift in smartphone manufacturing accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic, tariffs have impacted every level of industry participants, from top component suppliers to lower-tier importers, distributors, brands, and manufacturers."
He added, "As a result, companies are being forced to withdraw from China and allocate more production capacity and output to other countries. Production output is expected to increase in Vietnam, which is geographically close to China and has manufacturing and export capabilities, as well as in India, which has growth potential."
In particular, India is expected to achieve double-digit growth this year, accounting for 20% of global production output, fueled by export demand from Apple and Samsung. The report projects that India will be the biggest winner this year, while Vietnam, a global manufacturing and export hub, is also expected to see strong growth led by Samsung and Motorola.
Prachir Singh, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, highlighted the recent rapid growth of India's manufacturing sector. He assessed, "As traditional global electronic manufacturing services (EMS) giants continue to invest in India and local EMS actively participate, India's local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved."
Neil Shah, Vice President at Counterpoint Research, commented, "If Apple were to actually manufacture iPhones in a U.S. factory, considering that not everything is in place yet, we estimate that prices would rise by at least 15 to 20%, or $150 to $200." He added, "Supply chain transformation is not something that can be accomplished overnight; it requires significant effort, capital, and time."
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