There is a new forecast that this year's smartphone shipments will decrease significantly compared to previous expectations.
On June 4 (local time), market research firm Counterpoint Research released a report sharply lowering its growth outlook for Apple and Samsung's smartphone shipments this year from the previous 4.2% to 1.9%. The growth rate for iPhone shipments was revised down from 4% to 2.5%, and Samsung smartphones were downgraded from a previously expected 1.7% increase to no growth at all.
On the 13th of last month, Samsung Electronics' ultra-slim smartphone, the Galaxy S25 Edge, was unveiled in Samseong, Gangnam, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News
The report explained that the downward revision was due to "new uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs." In April, U.S. President Donald Trump designated smartphones and certain electronic products as exceptions to 'reciprocal tariffs.' However, he later announced plans to impose a minimum 25% tariff on all smartphones produced overseas and imported into the United States, not just iPhones. Liz Lee, Deputy Director at Counterpoint Research, stated, "Because Apple and Samsung have significant exposure to the U.S. market, tariffs have partially impacted the adjustment in growth rates." She also noted that "weakening demand in not only North America but also some regions in Europe and Asia was reflected in the outlook."
However, the report predicted that Apple would still see an increase in shipments compared to last year, driven by the popularity of the iPhone 16 series and rising demand for high-end models in emerging markets. In addition, despite the overall downward revision, it forecast that shipments of China's Huawei would rise by 11% year-on-year. The report stated, "By the end of this year, supply bottlenecks for Huawei's key components are expected to ease," and predicted that "Huawei will be able to secure a significant market share in the mid- to low-priced segment within China."
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