Record 80% Voter Turnout in Spotlight Since Kim Dae Jung
Lee Jaemyung and Kim Moonsoo Both Say "High Turnout Is Advantageous"
Attention on Winner's and Lee Junseok's Vote Shares, Youth Vote in Focus
The 21st presidential election will conclude on June 3. This election marks the second early presidential election in the nation's constitutional history, triggered by a presidential impeachment. It comes 182 days after the declaration of martial law on December 3 last year, and 60 days after former President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached on May 4. With slogans such as "End to Rebellion" and "Era of Change," this election has seen fierce competition among political camps, regions, and generations, drawing attention to which direction voters' preferences will ultimately lean.
According to the National Election Commission and other sources on June 2, the total number of eligible voters for this June 3 early presidential election is 44,391,871. This figure combines 44,363,148 voters registered domestically and 28,723 voters registered overseas. This is 194,179 more than in the 20th presidential election. Of the 44,363,148 voters who will cast their ballots on June 3, 15,423,607 (34.74%) have already participated in early voting.
The final voter turnout is a major point of interest. Political circles are watching closely to see whether, given the heightened public attention due to martial law and the presidential impeachment, turnout will reach 80%. Since the introduction of direct presidential elections, the last time voter turnout exceeded 80% was in the 15th presidential election (80.7%), when former President Kim Dae Jung was elected. The 18th presidential election (75.8%), which elected former President Park Geun Hye, the 19th (77.2%), which elected former President Moon Jae In, and the 20th (77.1%), which elected former President Yoon Suk Yeol, all surpassed 75% but did not reach 80%.
On the 2nd, one day before the 21st presidential election, large banners of Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae Myung and People Power Party candidate Kim Moon Soo were hung on a building in Uiwang, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Yonhap News
Attention is also focused on the winning candidate's vote share. In the history of presidential elections, former President Park Geun Hye is the only winner to have secured a majority, with 51.55%. Former President Moon Jae In won with 41.08%, and former President Yoon Suk Yeol with 48.56%. In multiple opinion polls conducted before the publication ban period, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jaemyung was polling in the mid-to-high 40% range, while People Power Party candidate Kim Moonsoo was in the mid-30% range.
Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jaemyung is appealing for support from citizens on the 1st in front of Ilsan Beach in Ulsan Metropolitan City as he makes a final push to target challenging areas. Photo by Yonhap News
Another point of interest is whether Lee Junseok, the Reform New Party candidate who has emphasized differentiation from established politicians, will achieve a vote share of 10% or more, which would qualify him for partial reimbursement of campaign expenses. If Lee secures a vote share between 10% and 15%, he could solidify his position as a leading conservative contender for the next presidential election. However, if he falls short, he may face criticism for refusing to unify the opposition camp.
Political circles are also closely watching where the votes of the younger 20s and 30s generations will go. During the campaign, all three major candidates?Lee Jaemyung, Kim Moonsoo, and Lee Junseok?focused heavily on appealing to young voters. This is because the proportion of swing voters is higher among this demographic, making them potential "casting votes." Lee Jaemyung pledged various policies such as youth housing, while Kim Moonsoo targeted youth job creation from the party primary stage. Lee Junseok, who just turned forty, campaigned on generational change.
People Power Party presidential candidate Kim Moonsoo is appealing for support during a campaign rally held on the 1st in front of the Statue of Taejo Yi Seonggye in Uijeongbu, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Yonhap News
The final voter turnout and last-minute negative campaigning are being cited as key variables in the election. The Democratic Party believes that a high turnout would favor Lee Jaemyung, while the People Power Party sees it as a result of conservative voter mobilization. Late-breaking issues such as the "ReeBak School" comment manipulation allegations and the controversy over remarks by author Yoo Si Min could also influence the vote shares.
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