For the First Time, the Possibility of a 2°C Rise in Global Temperature Within 10 Years Raised
WMO and UK Met Office: 80% Chance of New Annual Temperature Record in the Next Five Years
Workers are working at a construction site amid the heatwave. This is a stock photo unrelated to the article content.
For the first time, the possibility has been raised that the global average temperature could rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels within the next 10 years.
According to the Associated Press (AP) on the 29th (local time), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office announced in their "Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU) Report" that there is an 80% chance that the annual average global temperature will set a new record within the next five years. They also stated there is an 86% probability that in at least one year between 2025 and 2029, the annual average global temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Notably, this report is the first to suggest the possibility that the global annual average temperature could rise by more than 2°C. The report states that within the next 10 years, there is a chance the global annual average temperature will surpass the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C and reach the more severe threshold of a 2°C increase.
Just 10 years ago, earlier studies estimated that the likelihood of any upcoming year exceeding the 1.5°C threshold was only about 1%. However, a global average temperature increase of more than 1.5°C is now becoming a reality.
Adam Scaife and Leon Hermanson, scientists at the UK Met Office and co-authors of the report, described these projections as "shocking," emphasizing that "this is what the science is telling us."
Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts Research at the UK Met Office and professor at the University of Exeter, expressed concern, saying, "With the average temperature expected to be more than 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels over the next five years, more people will be at risk of extreme heatwaves." He added, "This will lead to more deaths and serious health problems, and as hotter air dries out the ground, there is a greater likelihood of more severe wildfires."
Natalie Mahowald, a climate scientist at Cornell University, also warned, "Rising temperatures will likely result in more intense hurricanes, heavy rainfall, and droughts," adding, "An increase in the global average temperature means more loss of life."
There is also analysis suggesting that the Arctic will be more severely affected. Director Hewitt stated, "Arctic ice will melt and sea levels will rise more rapidly," and "Arctic ice is warming 3.5 times faster than in other parts of the world."
Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University, said, "Record-breaking heat is now quickly becoming the 'new normal.'"
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