An economist from an Indian government think tank has predicted that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will surpass that of Japan within this year, making India the fourth largest economy in the world.
Arvind Virmani, an economist at the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog), stated in an interview with India's PTI news agency on May 26 (local time), "India is in the process of becoming the world's fourth largest economic power, and I believe this will be realized by the end of this year."
Based on last month's World Economic Outlook report released by the IMF, Dr. Virmani projected that India's economic growth rate will reach 6.2% this year, with nominal GDP amounting to $4.187 trillion. This figure slightly surpasses Japan's projected nominal GDP of $4.186 trillion.
If Dr. Virmani's prediction comes true, India will become the world's fourth largest economy by GDP, following the United States, China, and Germany. India, which has the world's largest population, rose to 10th place in GDP in 2014 and, except for the period during the COVID-19 pandemic, recorded an average annual economic growth rate of around 7% over the past decade. In 2022, India overtook the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth largest economy.
However, India's per capita income (PCI) in 2025 is expected to be only $2,880, indicating that the country will remain classified as a lower-middle-income nation according to World Bank standards.
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