Korea Meteorological Administration: "This Summer Likely to Be Hotter Than Average"... Will Extreme Heat Waves Hit?

The Korea Meteorological Administration forecast on May 23 that this summer is likely to be hotter than usual.

An applicant who completed the physical fitness test for the Daegu City Disaster Safety Task Force held at Daegu Stadium on the 20th, when the daytime high temperature in Daegu rose to 33.4 degrees Celsius, is washing his face with cool water. Photo by Yonhap News

In its "three-month outlook for June to August," the Korea Meteorological Administration indicated that the probability of temperatures being higher than average is greater than the probability of them being similar to or lower than average. As for precipitation, it forecast that rainfall will be higher than average in June, and similar to average in July and August.

The probability that temperatures in June will be higher than the average (21.1 to 21.7 degrees Celsius) or similar to the average is each 40%, while the probability of being lower than average is 20%. For July (average temperature 24.0 to 25.2 degrees Celsius) and August (24.6 to 25.6 degrees Celsius), the probability of temperatures exceeding the average was presented as 50%.

Even when averaging the forecasts of 474 climate prediction models from meteorological agencies in 11 countries, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, the probability of higher-than-average temperatures was found to be high.

The Korea Meteorological Administration cited the fact that sea surface temperatures in the tropical western Pacific are higher than average. When upward air currents occur in the tropical western Pacific, downward air currents appear in East Asia, and high pressure develops to the southeast of Korea. When high pressure forms to the southeast of Korea, warm and humid southerly winds blow into the country, which leads to heat waves.