Yoo Si-min Predicts "Lee Jae-myung at Least 55%, Kim Moon-soo Up to 35%"... Here's the Reason Why

Yoo Si-min Predicts Vote Shares for June 3 Presidential Election in Lecture
"55% When Combining Kim, Roh, and Moon... Minimum for Lee Jae-myung"
On the "Overwhelming Regime Change Theory," Kim Min-seok Says "Close-Quarters Battle"

Yoo Si-min, a prominent progressive speaker and writer, has drawn attention by mentioning the expected vote shares for the June 3 presidential election. According to Gyeongin Broadcasting on the 13th, Yoo predicted during his lecture "Talking About President Roh Moo-hyun" held in Incheon that day, "In this presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, will receive at least 55% of the votes, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party will receive between 25% and 35%, and the remaining candidates will each receive around 10%."

Writer Yoo Si-min attracted attention by mentioning the expected vote share for the June 3 presidential election during his lecture "Talking About President Roh Moo-hyun" on the 13th. Gyeongin Broadcasting YouTube

Yoo explained that his prediction was based on the results of a historical presidential preference poll conducted by Gallup Korea in June of last year, before the 12·3 Martial Law. According to Gallup, between March 22 and April 5 of last year, a survey was conducted nationwide among 1,777 people aged 13 and older on the topic of "the most favored president in history" (with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±2.3 percentage points). Former President Roh Moo-hyun was the most favored, cited by 31% of respondents, followed by former President Park Chung-hee (24%) and former President Kim Dae-jung (15%). Former President Moon Jae-in received 9%, then-incumbent President Yoon Suk-yeol received 2.9%, former President Syngman Rhee received 2.7%, former President Park Geun-hye received 2.4%, former President Lee Myung-bak received 1.6%, former President Kim Young-sam received 1.2%, and former President Roh Tae-woo received 0.4%. Among respondents, 9.8% said they did not particularly like any president.

The 55% vote share Yoo projected for Lee is the arithmetic sum of the percentages of respondents who said they favored Roh Moo-hyun, Kim Dae-jung, and Moon Jae-in. The minimum 25% vote share projected for Kim closely matches the 24% who favored Park Chung-hee.

Yoo stated, "The historical presidential preference survey is related to one's perception of their own identity. The president is the most widely known figure, and most people know how that person's life unfolded," adding, "People have their own judgments and feelings about presidents, and if someone says they like a particular president the most, it means they want to be like that person."

Yoo also noted, "The political landscape between the ruling and opposition parties has shifted according to the results of the historical presidential preference survey," and said, "When the preference for former Democratic Party presidents reached a majority, the Democratic Party began to gain an advantage in National Assembly elections."

However, since democratization, no candidate has achieved a vote share as high as 55% in any presidential election. In the 18th presidential election in 2012, Park Geun-hye became the first candidate to win a majority with 51.55%. In terms of vote count, in the 20th presidential election in 2022, Yoon Suk-yeol received 16,394,815 votes (48.56%), the highest number of votes ever, while Lee Jae-myung received 16,147,738 votes (47.83%), losing by a margin of 0.73 percentage points.

Within the Democratic Party, there is analysis suggesting that as the election approaches, the support bases for both Lee and Kim will consolidate further. On the 15th, Kim Min-seok, co-chair of the Democratic Party's election committee, stated, "The gap between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo, whether in a two-way or three-way contest, will gradually narrow," and emphasized, "The Democratic camp must prepare with tension and determination for a fierce close-quarters battle." Regarding the so-called "overwhelming regime change theory," he said, "The party has never officially adopted the direction or slogan of an overwhelming victory, and personally, I have never agreed with such an idea."