If Global Temperature Rises by 1.5 Degrees, 52% Will Face Climate Disasters
"Climate Change Fundamentally Alters the Living Environment for Future Generations"
A study has found that children born after 2020 will experience unprecedented heatwaves throughout their lives due to climate disasters.
A joint research team from the Free University of Brussels in Belgium and ETH Zurich published an analysis of generational exposure to climate disasters in the international journal Nature on May 7 (local time).
Climate disasters refer to extreme climate events such as heatwaves, droughts, crop failures, floods, wildfires, and storms, which, under pre-industrial natural conditions, would have affected only 1 in 10,000 people.
The research team analyzed the lifetime probability of experiencing climate disasters by age group under three scenarios in which the global temperature rises by 1.5 degrees, 2.7 degrees, and 3.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, using climate models, demographic data, and climate impact simulations.
Children escaping the heatwave at the fountain in Gwanghwamun Square, Jongno-gu, Seoul Photo by Yonhap News
The analysis showed that if the global average temperature rises by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, about 52% of those born in 2020 will have to live with repeated exposure to extreme heatwaves that have never been observed before. Under the same conditions, the probability of someone born in 1960 experiencing such heatwaves in their lifetime is only 16%. There is currently only 0.2 degrees left until the 1.5-degree increase above pre-industrial levels is reached.
If greenhouse gas reduction policies remain at their current level and the global average temperature rises by 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, it is projected that about 83% of children born in 2020 will experience extreme heatwaves throughout their lives. This is twice the rate for those born in 1960. If climate policy fails and the temperature rises by 3.5 degrees, the proportion of children experiencing heatwaves will surge to 92%.
The research team analyzed six major types of climate disasters: heatwaves, droughts, crop failures, wildfires, tropical cyclones, and river floods. The results showed that for those born after 2020, the frequency of exposure to all these events increased significantly in a statistically meaningful way.
The researchers acknowledged that the study does not account for domestic migration or changes in birth and death rates within countries. However, they emphasized that "this study quantitatively demonstrates that climate change is fundamentally altering the living environment for future generations."
Sonia Seneviratne, a professor at ETH Zurich, stated, "This study shows how much responsibility today's decision-makers bear for the future of younger generations," adding, "The choices we make today will determine the climate risks that children will face throughout their lives."
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