[Global Focus] Trump Reveals Third-Term Ambitions Early in Term... "A Sophisticated Political Strategy"

Trump Repeatedly Mentions "Third Term" After Second Inauguration
Also Steps Back, Saying "It Is Not Permitted"
NYT: "Trump Brings His Actual Intentions Into Public Discussion"
Experts Analyze as "Sophisticated Political Strategy"

Is it possible for U.S. President Donald Trump to pursue a third term? From the early days of his second term, President Trump has frequently mentioned the idea of running for a third term, sparking controversy. Experts analyze that President Trump’s repeated statements, which violate the Constitution, and even the sale of related merchandise, are part of a sophisticated political strategy. Some interpret his recent step back from the idea of running for a third term as a calculated move to gauge public reaction and test the boundaries between legality and illegality.

Trump, Intentionally Raising the Issue of a Third Term? "Using It as a Political Tool"

During a phone interview with NBC in March, President Trump was asked about plans to run for a third term. He replied, "There are ways you can do that," adding, "I'm not joking. Many people want me to do it." He also mentioned that a scenario in which Vice President JD Vance runs and then hands the role over to him is "one way" to achieve this.

In addition, the Trump family business, the Trump Group, has fueled the controversy by selling hats emblazoned with "Trump 2028" since last month. The year 2028 is when the next U.S. presidential election will take place. Notably, the phrase "Rewrite the rules" printed on T-shirts sold alongside the hats has been interpreted as a direct challenge to the 22nd Amendment, which limits the presidency to two terms.

President Trump’s public discussion of a third term is thus seen as a political strategy that goes beyond mere joking. Russian-American journalist Masha Gessen pointed out, "President Trump's third-term ambitions are a serious and grave matter for him. The main reason he keeps bringing it up is that he knows if he leaves the presidency, he could end up in prison." In other words, President Trump is laying the groundwork early to avoid potential criminal prosecution once he returns to private life after this term.

Gessen also noted that President Trump is attacking the media to create a more favorable election environment for a third term. She said, "It is frightening to imagine how much more extreme President Trump’s attacks on the media could become over the next four years. It is questionable whether the election four years from now will reflect the will of the people, as past U.S. elections have." She added, "President Trump and the Republican Party are continuing to undermine the U.S. electoral system."

Indeed, in March, President Trump signed an executive order allowing only those who can prove U.S. citizenship to vote in federal elections. The order specifies that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), in cooperation with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), can issue subpoenas to review state voter rolls and cut federal funding to states that do not comply. Political news outlet Axios warned that such measures could end up disenfranchising far more legal voters than they would catch or deter illegal ones.

Eric Trump, the second son of U.S. President Donald Trump, is wearing a 'Trump 2028' hat. EricTrumpX

Bret Stephens, a conservative columnist for The New York Times (NYT), judged that President Trump's references to a third term are more of a deliberate political performance than an actual plan. He said, "President Trump does not appear to be worried about going to prison after his term ends," and assessed that the likelihood of him actually attempting a third term is low. He added, "President Trump is well aware that he is being portrayed as someone who stands up to the (corrupt) system or progressive forces," explaining that he is shaping his political image through his third-term remarks.

Stephens predicted that, even if President Trump were to attempt a third term by any means, the American democratic system would resist. He said, "There is a high probability that President Trump will not be president four years from now," and emphasized, "Today's America is neither Russia under Boris Yeltsin after the collapse of the Soviet Union nor the Weimar Republic. America's institutions are much stronger than the general public thinks and are increasingly regaining their voice."

Meanwhile, Washington Post (WP) columnist David Von Drehle approached President Trump's third-term remarks as a political provocation aimed at the opposition. He said, "The legal debate over whether President Trump can run in the 2028 election is already settled. It is no longer a matter of legal interpretation," and interpreted items like the 'Trump 2028' hat as tools to provoke anti-Trump forces who feel threatened by the idea of his third-term run.

Von Drehle said that President Trump’s references to a third term reveal a sense of urgency, as if he is running out of time. He noted, "What President Trump does not want the public to think about is the fact that he has little time left to be on the 'stage' as president. By the end of his term, he will be older than former President Joe Biden was, and voters do not look favorably on elderly presidents." He continued, "With a fierce budget battle expected in Congress soon, if it becomes clear that the Republican Party has failed to resolve the national debt issue, President Trump's grip on Congress will become even more precarious. After that, the midterm elections await. President Trump may wish he could stop time at this point, but time waits for no one."

"Not Something I Want to Do"... Doubts About Sincerity Remain

On the 29th of last month (local time), at a rally held to mark the 100th day of President Donald Trump's inauguration, supporters held banners reading "Trump 2028." Photo by AFP/Getty Images

President Trump, who had previously made no secret of his ambitions for a third term, reversed his stance in an NBC interview released on the 4th, stating that he has no intention of running in the 2028 presidential election. He said, "As far as I know, running for a third term is not permitted," and drew a line, saying, "It is not something I want to do." He added, "After spending the next four years well, I want to hand over this position to another Republican. I will have served two terms as president for a total of eight years. I have always thought this is very important." However, when asked about a successor, he said, "It is too early to say," avoiding a specific answer.

There is analysis that President Trump's change in position does not necessarily mean he is giving up on a third-term run. The NYT pointed out, "President Trump has a history of making outlandish statements to bring his real intentions into public discussion. He always tests the boundaries of the law. Even when he withdraws provocative claims (such as a third-term run), he wants the public to reconsider their feasibility and become accustomed to the idea."