In-Depth Analysis of Polls
Little Change in Support Base Despite Shifts in Election Landscape
Expansion Among Centrists Remains a Challenge
In the June 3 public opinion poll for the 21st presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae Myung is leading in support. However, characteristics different from the conventional "political polling patterns" are being observed. Typically, in three-way (or two-way) matchups, support rates in polls rise significantly compared to four-way or more crowded contests, but in Lee's case, there is little change.
According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS), released on the 8th by Embrain Public, Kstat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (conducted from the 5th to the 7th with 1,000 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide via mobile phone interviews; margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level; response rate is 22.1%), Lee received 43% support in the candidate suitability survey where major candidates were listed. Independent preliminary candidate Han Ducksoo received 23%, People Power Party candidate Kim Moonsoo received 12%, Reform Party candidate Lee Junseok received 5%, and 15% responded "none" or did not answer.
There was also a poll assuming a single conservative candidate between Kim and Han, creating a hypothetical three-way race. In this scenario, Lee received 43% support if Kim was the unified candidate, and 44% if Han was the unified candidate. Even as the four-way race narrowed to three, Lee's support rate remained almost unchanged.
A similar trend appeared in a Gallup poll (commissioned by Seoul Economic Daily and conducted on the 6th and 7th with 1,014 people aged 18 and older nationwide via 100% wireless phone interviews; response rate was 16.5%). In the four-way race, Lee received 50% support, while in the three-way scenario, he received 51% if Kim was unified, and 50% if Han was unified.
Some analysts say this demonstrates both the solidity of Lee's support base and the limits to its expansion. However, there is still potential for change among centrist and conservative voters. According to the NBS, Lee's support among centrists is 50-52%, but 61% of centrists prefer a change in administration, indicating about 10 percentage points of potential for further expansion. There is also room for growth among conservatives. While 21% of conservative respondents favored a change in administration, Lee's support among them was only 15-16%.
Kim Bongshin, Vice President of MetaVoice, analyzed, "The polls confirm that Lee's support base is very solid, but they also present a challenge for his ability to expand it." However, Kim also predicted, "Given the high willingness to vote among Democratic Party supporters, Lee's actual vote share could exceed the polling numbers." For more detailed information on the polls, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
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