'Volatile' Opinion Polls Converge... Lee Jae Myung's Support at 47% to 52.3%

Poll Results Similar Despite Differences in Survey Methods and Agencies

Opinion polls, which had shown significant fluctuations during periods such as the impeachment crisis, have recently begun to converge. Analysts attribute this to a decrease in variables as the presidential election approaches.

As of May 8, a review of the trends in political opinion polls related to the June 3 presidential election shows that, despite differences in commissioning organizations, polling agencies, and survey methods, the results are generally converging. An analysis of eight recent presidential election polls reveals that the results largely follow similar patterns.

Lee Jae Myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, is greeting supporters and citizens brightly near the square in front of Pungnammun Gate in Jeonju, Jeonbuk, on the 7th as part of the "Listening Tour Through Every Alley: National Land Traverse Edition." Photo by Yonhap News

In a hypothetical scenario where the opposition consolidation between Kim Moonsoo, the People Power Party candidate, and Han Ducksoo, the independent former Prime Minister, results in Han Ducksoo becoming the unified candidate, Lee Jae Myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, receives between 47% and 52.3% support. Han Ducksoo garners between 30% and 36.2%, while Lee Junseok, the Reform Party presidential candidate, receives between 5% and 8%. If Kim Moonsoo becomes the unified candidate, Lee Jae Myung receives between 48% and 51.5%, Kim Moonsoo receives between 27% and 33.1%, and Lee Junseok receives between 5% and 9.5%.

Lee Jae Myung is showing a near-majority lead. The gap between Han Ducksoo and Kim Moonsoo, who are the subjects of consolidation discussions, is around 3 percentage points.

The differences resulting from survey methodologies have also narrowed. While ARS (automated response system) polls tend to show higher support rates compared to telephone interviews, the difference is not significant. For example, in a hypothetical match-up between Lee Jae Myung and Han Ducksoo, telephone interviews show support for Lee Jae Myung between 47% and 50%, whereas ARS surveys show results between 50.6% and 52.3%. In a hypothetical match-up with Kim Moonsoo, telephone interviews show Lee Jae Myung with 48% to 51%, while ARS surveys show 50% to 51.5%.

Regarding this trend of converging poll results, Hong Hyungsik, head of Hankil Research, explained, "Initially, fluctuations in public judgment are significant due to various variables, but as time passes, things become more settled and the impact of those variables diminishes." He added, "As their influence decreases, the polling results tend to converge."