Supreme Court to Rule on Lee Jaemyung's Election Law Case Ten Days Before Candidate Registration

Grand Bench Verdict Scheduled for Tomorrow Afternoon
Unprecedented Speed in Proceedings
Acquittal Would Boost Presidential Campaign

The Supreme Court's Grand Bench will deliver its verdict at 3 p.m. on June 1 in the election law violation case involving Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party candidate, a ruling that is expected to have a major impact on the presidential election scheduled for June 3. The Supreme Court ruling, which will take place just ten days before candidate registration (May 10-11), is certain to become a variable in the political landscape regardless of the outcome. The Supreme Court is reaching a conclusion just nine days after referring the case to the Grand Bench, and 36 days after the appellate court's not-guilty verdict. This is an unprecedentedly swift process.

The Supreme Court held its first meeting of justices on April 22, the day Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae referred the case to the Grand Bench, and a second meeting took place two days later on April 24. The fact that the verdict will be delivered just one week after that suggests that a decision was already reached during the deliberations on April 24, with the subsequent period used for drafting the written judgment. The justices' deliberations are conducted under strict confidentiality, with no minutes or records kept. During the process, the most junior justices state their opinions first, and the decision is made by majority vote. Twelve justices, including Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae, are participating in this Grand Bench. In the event of a 6-6 tie, which does not occur, the Chief Justice, who holds the casting vote, traditionally sides with the majority when opinions are closely divided.

The Grand Bench has three possible outcomes. First, it may dismiss the appeal, thereby upholding the appellate court's not-guilty verdict. In this case, candidate Lee Jaemyung would face the presidential election under far less legal uncertainty. A lawyer who previously served as a Supreme Court research judge commented, "It seems the Supreme Court has moved unusually quickly because it does not want to be drawn into political matters, and is likely to make a decision aimed at reducing confusion," adding, "This is similar to the recent situation in the United States, where the judiciary said it should not intervene in former President Trump's legal risks but rather let the people decide."

The second scenario is that the Grand Bench overturns the appellate court's verdict and remands the case to the Seoul High Court with instructions to determine the sentence. Since lower courts are bound by Supreme Court decisions, the High Court cannot overturn the Grand Bench's conclusion and acquit Lee. However, since the threshold for invalidating an election and stripping eligibility to run is a sentence of 1 million won or more in fines, the fate of 'politician Lee Jaemyung' will depend on the sentence imposed by the Seoul High Court on remand. In this scenario, it is possible to file another appeal to the Supreme Court against the remand decision, making it virtually impossible for a final decision to be reached before the presidential election. As a result, Lee would run for office while carrying the burden of a guilty verdict, leaving the final decision to the voters.

The final scenario is that the Supreme Court overturns the appellate court's not-guilty verdict, determines the sentence itself, and finalizes the ruling. Such direct sentencing by the Supreme Court is extremely rare, making this scenario unlikely. However, a lawyer who previously served as a presiding judge at the Seoul High Court commented, "Many legal professionals believe that the appellate court's not-guilty verdict was clearly wrong as a matter of law, so confirming the acquittal would pose a significant risk for the justices," adding, "I believe the court has moved quickly to directly impose a sentence of 1 million won or more and give the Democratic Party time to replace its candidate."

If the Supreme Court directly sentences Lee to a fine of 1 million won or more, he will be ineligible to run in the presidential election, as he will lose his eligibility to stand for office. In this case, the Democratic Party would have no choice but to replace its candidate. Conversely, if the sentence is less than 1 million won, all restrictions on Lee's candidacy would be lifted.