[Insight & Opinion] Han Ducksoo, the Supreme Court, and Trump

Supreme Court Ruling on Lee's Case Emerges as Major Variable
Economic and Diplomatic Volatility from Trump Adds Uncertainty
Optimism Over the "Eo-Dae-Myeong" Scenario Should Be Put on Hold for Now

The optimism surrounding the so-called "Eo-Dae-Myeong" scenario is being put on hold for now. On April 22, the Supreme Court referred the public election law violation case involving Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party's presidential primary candidate, to the full bench and began deliberations that same day. Two days later, the court held a follow-up session. The proceedings have accelerated significantly. There is now speculation that a verdict could be delivered before the June presidential election, or possibly even before candidate registration in May. If a fine of 1 million won or more is finalized, Lee Jaemyung will be ineligible to run for president.

Even if the Supreme Court, like the appellate court, hands down an acquittal, it is no longer a surprise. If the court overturns the previous ruling and imposes a harsher sentence, as in the first trial, people may simply accept it. Eight justices of the Constitutional Court removed a sitting president, who had received 16.39 million votes, before the first instance of a criminal case was concluded. Therefore, it would not be unusual if the 12 justices of the Supreme Court were to convict a leading presidential candidate, whose support is high in a sample poll of 1,000 people, after the second instance of a criminal case has concluded. According to Article 11 of the Constitution, both the president and presidential candidates are equal before the law. The Supreme Court may choose to slow down and take no action at all. Even in that case, it would not be surprising. After the impeachment crisis, accepting court decisions has become a social virtue. In this context, the timing and outcome of the Supreme Court's ruling have emerged as major variables in the early presidential election.

Han Ducksoo, the acting president, is another key variable. Some within the People Power Party, who are competing against Lee Jaemyung, value the potential to broaden their support base. Rather than nurturing internal franchise stars, they are looking to recruit external free agents. For these people, Han Ducksoo is considered a marketable candidate. He has a nonpartisan bureaucratic background and hails from Honam. He can appeal to swing voters, the Seoul metropolitan area, and Honam. Unlike President Yoon Sukyeol, who is seen as somewhat unstable, acting president Han Ducksoo projects an image of experience and stability. His credentials as prime minister, deputy prime minister for economic affairs, ambassador to the United States, and a PhD in economics from Harvard University are seen as indicators of his administrative competence.

On the other hand, there are also several points for criticism. First, his age?he is 75 years old. The progressive camp attaches the label of "acting for a coup d'etat" to him. As rumors of his candidacy circulate, progressives criticize Han Ducksoo's service under both progressive and conservative governments as "the ultimate opportunist," "the worst bureaucrat," and "against human decency." They also bring up controversies over high consulting fees from Kim & Chang.

Media and public opinion polls are also being tested. Mainstream media outlets have generally treated Han Ducksoo's potential candidacy with indifference. In opinion polls, there is a mix of public opposition to his candidacy and preference for him among conservative presidential hopefuls. Like former UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon, who explored a presidential bid but ultimately withdrew, Han Ducksoo is also expected to reveal the weaknesses of a bureaucrat. On the other hand, Han Ducksoo refused to appoint an opposition-nominated Constitutional Court justice during the presidential impeachment trial, which led to his own impeachment. After returning as acting president, he nominated Constitutional Court justices on behalf of the president. This act was political, not administrative, and was seen as a provocation against Lee Jaemyung and the opposition. Because Han Ducksoo appears to possess both loyalty and a will to power, it is difficult to conclude that he will withdraw from the race.

The biggest external variable is U.S. President Donald Trump. His aggressive tariff policies of 24-25% could have a tremendous impact on the national economy and individual lives in Korea. Lee Jaemyung is shifting to the right from his pro-China image. For Han Ducksoo, who once served as chief trade negotiator and recently held amicable talks with Trump, this is both an opportunity and a risk. If he can enhance Korea's standing in negotiations with the United States and secure better tariff reductions than Japan, he might gain the upper hand. However, high expectations can also lead to great disappointment. There are not many days left until the presidential election.

Just as it seemed that Lee Jaemyung's dominance in the early presidential election was solidifying, new variables have emerged: the Supreme Court, Han Ducksoo, and Trump. As with previous presidential elections, this one may experience several twists and turns.

Heo Manseop, Professor at Gangneung-Wonju National University