Tariff Shock Not Yet Arrived... Q1 Negative Growth Stuns [3-Minute Brief]

① Q1 Real GDP at -0.2%: Domestic demand and exports both slow down
② Trump mentions timing just a day after remarks on China tariff cuts
③ Bank of Korea releases April Business Survey Index and Economic Sentiment Index

MARKET INDEX : Year to date

○Trump: "Meeting with China again today... Tariff decision within 2-3 weeks"
○Expectations for easing of US-China tariff tensions
○US Treasury: "Successful tariff negotiations with Korea"

Top3 NEWS

■ Korea’s Q1 '0.2% negative growth'?lowest in 2 years and 3 months: "Outlook for this year remains bleak"

○Caused by weakened sentiment, sluggish construction sector, and deferred semiconductor demand
○Despite expectations for a slight improvement in Q2 led by private consumption
○Slow domestic recovery and US tariff threats cast a shadow of low growth for the year

■ Trump mentions 'China tariff cuts': "Decision within 2-3 weeks"... Is there a breakthrough in US-China trade talks?

○US Treasury: "There is an opportunity for a US-China big deal"
○"Current tariffs are unsustainable"?mutual reduction mentioned
○WSJ: "White House considering a 50-65% reduction in China tariffs"

■ April business sentiment remains gloomy, "Barely above emergency martial law levels"

○All-industry Business Survey Index at 87.9, up 1.2 points from previous month
○Reflects strong performance in some manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors and seasonal effects in non-manufacturing sectors
○However, index remains in the 80s for the fifth consecutive month?the longest period since COVID-19

Graphic News: US tightens grip?even on domestic firms?to curb China’s 'AI rise'

○US-China tech supremacy battle intensifies
○Stricter AI chip export controls to China?Nvidia’s export routes blocked
○Narrowing the AI gap; maintaining No.1 in EVs and shipbuilding

the Chart: IMF cuts Korea’s growth rate by 1 percentage point, "Includes impact of political uncertainty"

○Rahul Anand, head of IMF Korea mission
○Explained outlook background via written response
○"IMF forecasts tariff impact through next year"

Today’s Key Schedule

○Domestic

KOSDAQ OrganoidScience subscription, planned offering price KRW 17,000~21,000

KOSDAQ WonilTNI subscription, confirmed offering price KRW 13,500

KOSDAQ RokitHealthcare subscription, confirmed offering price KRW 11,000

○Overseas

02:00 US 7-year Treasury bond auction

08:30 Japan Tokyo core consumer price index (YoY) (April)

21:30 Canada retail sales (MoM) (February)

23:00 US Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (April)

◇Lunch & Evening Weather

○Lowest temperature 8°C (▼3°C) ｜Highest temperature: 18°C (▲2°C)
○Precipitation probability: morning 0% | afternoon 0%
○Fine dust: good in the morning | bad in the afternoon

All you need in 3 minutes: concise, value-for-time economic news. Published daily at 8:00 AM.