Brookings Institution: "US May Pressure South Korea to Support Taiwan Defense"

Andrew Yeo: "South Korea Should Prepare for a Larger Role in the Indo-Pacific"

As an internal document from the U.S. Department of Defense revealed that the Trump administration prioritizes preventing China's invasion of Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific region, experts have analyzed that South Korea could be pressured to support Taiwan's defense in the event of an emergency in the Taiwan Strait.

On the 31st (local time), Andrew Yeo, a Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, along with Hannah Foreman, stated this in an article titled "Is South Korea Ready to Define Its Role in a Taiwan Strait Emergency?" posted on the institution's website.

Taiwan Navy warship. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News.

They said, "It is still unclear how President Trump would engage with the Taiwan issue during a second term," but added, "Hardliners within the Trump administration toward China are likely to pressure allies to strengthen support for Taiwan's defense," and "In such a scenario, the U.S. might push South Korea to step out of its comfort zone and provide greater clarity and strong commitment to the ROK-U.S. alliance in the event of an emergency in the Taiwan Strait."

They continued, "The Trump administration has declared prioritizing the Indo-Pacific," and "South Korea should also be prepared to play a larger role in the Indo-Pacific region, including the Taiwan Strait."

They noted, "Since a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could impact U.S. forces and the ROK-U.S. alliance, and a war in Taiwan would increase the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula, the ROK and the U.S. should consider strengthening cooperation on the Taiwan issue beyond informal two-track dialogues."

They proposed that the ROK and the U.S. should address agenda items including ▲ a concrete definition of strategic flexibility in the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis ▲ South Korea's military contributions during a Taiwan crisis ▲ and measures to enhance peace, stability, and deterrence in the Taiwan Strait beyond military contingency plans.

Regarding strategic flexibility, they pointed out that there has been no update on the official ROK-U.S. position since 2006, stating, "Although the role and responsibilities of the ROK-U.S. alliance have expanded to the broader Indo-Pacific, there are no specific details on how U.S. forces stationed in South Korea would actually be deployed."

They emphasized the need for discussions on under what conditions U.S. forces in South Korea could be deployed to Taiwan, and how the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command would ensure defense and deterrence on the Korean Peninsula against Chinese retaliation or North Korean provocations. They also mentioned that U.S. military bases located in Pyeongtaek, Osan, and Gunsan could be helpful in responding to a Taiwan crisis.

Regarding South Korea's military contributions, they suggested that theoretically, options could range from rear support including intelligence sharing to logistical support for U.S. forces and provision of weapons to U.S. forces.

Additionally, they pointed out that if President Trump were to "pass over" South Korea by meeting North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un or demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea, thereby undermining South Korea's security interests, South Korea's willingness to support the Trump administration's stance on China and Taiwan could weaken.