Dramatic Turnaround Achieved in the Appeals Trial
Embracing the ‘Veto Forces’ Among Moderates
Opportunity to Focus Capabilities on Public Welfare
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, was acquitted in the second trial on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act, signaling a green light for his presidential bid. If an early presidential election becomes a reality, it is expected that the intra-party primary will solidify around Lee, forming the ‘Eodaemyeong’ (Anyway, the president is Lee Jae-myung) structure.
On the 27th, political circles viewed this ruling as effectively removing obstacles to Lee’s presidential candidacy. Democratic Party lawmaker Jung Sung-ho said in an MBC radio interview, "If there is an early presidential election, I think many of the obstacles to an early election have been largely removed."
The biggest advantage Lee gains from this second trial acquittal is the increased possibility of winning over the ‘veto forces’ within the moderate voter base. It is interpreted that there is significant potential for rising approval ratings among moderate conservatives and non-partisan voters who value rationality and morality. Previously, in July 2020, when Lee was governor of Gyeonggi Province, his approval ratings surged after the Supreme Court overturned and remanded a case involving abuse of power and obstruction of rights, ruling in his favor.
He can now focus his capabilities on public welfare. Immediately after the second trial acquittal, Lee traveled to Andong, Gyeongbuk, an area affected by wildfires, to console the victims and engage in public welfare activities.
The anti-Lee faction is likely to lose momentum in pushing for a ‘candidate replacement’ and see their influence diminish. This is because the basis for their argument to cultivate alternative candidates, considering Lee’s potential heavy sentence in the second trial of the election law case, has weakened. Some anti-Lee figures are reportedly considering giving up on the intra-party primary altogether.
The People Power Party is at a loss. While voices calling for the Supreme Court’s judgment are rising, their concerns have deepened. Kwon Seong-dong, floor leader of the People Power Party, said, "The acquittal decision was made first, and then the logic was fitted afterward. The Supreme Court must correct this to restore the judiciary’s authority." However, the Supreme Court can only confirm the acquittal or remand the case, and if an early presidential election unfolds, it is unlikely that a conclusion will be reached before the election.
Some point out that a strategic revision is inevitable, as Lee’s reliance on judicial risks weakens. If President Yoon is impeached and an early presidential election phase opens, the key card that could shake Lee may lose its power. The ruling party has concentrated its firepower on attacking Lee, even publishing a ‘Lee Jae-myung Outrageous Remarks Collection’.
Concerns are also growing because no clear rival candidate from the ruling coalition has yet emerged to block Lee’s solo run in the event of an early presidential election. A ruling party official said, "Unlike Lee, who has effectively started his early presidential election campaign after the second trial ruling, the lack of a clear contender and limited time are concerns."
Meanwhile, Lee is evaluated to have turned repeated judicial risks into an opportunity. In 2023, although the arrest consent bill passed amid internal party rebellion votes, the arrest warrant was dismissed, and after the party’s nomination process, he completely took control of the party. He was also acquitted in the first trial related to the most dangerous perjury coaching charges, reversing the crisis phase that had focused on the first trial of the Public Official Election Act. Subsequently, with President Yoon Seok-youl declaring martial law and then being impeached, the political leadership shifted to the opposition. Now, it is observed that for Lee, aside from the impeachment trial of President Yoon, no other variables remain in the early presidential election phase.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
