Lee Acquitted in Second Trial...
Potential to Expand Moderate Support Grows
Anti-Lee 'Candidate Replacement' Argument Weakens
Key Issue: Opposition Unified Open Primary
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, was acquitted in the second trial on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act, signaling a green light for his presidential bid. If an early presidential election becomes a reality, it is expected that the intra-party primary will solidify around Lee, forming the so-called 'Eodaemyeong' (Anyway, the president is Lee Jae-myung) structure.
According to political circles on the 27th, with some of the judicial risks alleviated, Lee is expected to accelerate preparations for the presidential election that are underway behind the scenes. Although the Supreme Court’s final ruling remains, Lee has largely removed the 'shackles' of judicial risk. Some in the political sphere say that Lee has already been discussing appointments for his primary campaign, with Representative Yoon Ho-jung as the election committee chairman, and Representatives Kang Hoon-sik (general headquarters chief) and Yoon Hu-deok (policy headquarters chief) among the rumored candidates.
The biggest advantage Lee gains from the second trial acquittal is the increased possibility of winning over the 'veto forces' within the moderate voter base. It is interpreted that there is significant potential for rising approval ratings among moderate conservatives and independents who value rationality and morality. Previously, in July 2020, when Lee was governor of Gyeonggi Province, his approval ratings surged after the Supreme Court overturned and remanded a case involving abuse of power and obstruction of rights, ruling in his favor.
Lee is also expected to be free from criticism that the party is focusing more on his trial than on people’s livelihoods. Immediately after the second trial acquittal, Lee traveled to Andong, Gyeongbuk, an area affected by wildfires, to console the victims and promptly began attending to public welfare. He also plans to urge the government and ruling party to swiftly discuss additional supplementary budgets.
The anti-Lee faction is likely to lose momentum in pushing for a 'candidate replacement' and see their influence diminish. This is because the basis for their argument to cultivate alternative candidates, considering Lee’s potential heavy sentence in the second trial, has weakened. Some anti-Lee figures are reportedly considering giving up on the intra-party primary altogether. Yang Ki-dae, former lawmaker and secretary of the anti-Lee former lawmakers’ group Choiilhoe, said in a phone interview, "The most important issue now is the acceptance of President Yoon Seok-youl’s impeachment and its timing," adding, "We should observe the situation for a while and prepare responses to the intra-party primary."
The implementation of an opposition unified open primary is also a noteworthy point. If an early presidential election is realized due to the acceptance of President Yoon’s impeachment, the Democratic Party is likely to finalize its primary candidates within 10 days after the ruling. During this process, discussions are expected on whether to implement the opposition unified open primary advocated by the Innovation Party and the anti-Lee faction. However, with Lee’s judicial risks eased, it is widely interpreted that even a full open primary would hardly overturn the Eodaemyeong scenario. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy analyzed, "Prominent anti-Lee presidential hopefuls like Kim Dong-yeon and Kim Boo-kyum might consider participating in the open primary as Democratic Party members to put pressure on Lee," but added, "There is a risk that this could become a party of their own."
Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is giving a statement after being acquitted in the appeal trial of a violation of the Public Official Election Act held at the Seoul High Court on the 26th. 2025.3.26 Photo by Joint Press Corps
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