Conference Board's March Consumer Confidence Index Falls to 92.9
Lowest Level Since Early 2021 When COVID-19 Hit
Expectations Index Drops Below Recession Threshold, Lowest in 12 Years
Consumer Confidence Plummets Amid Recession and Inflation Fears Driven by Tariffs
As uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies continues, consumer confidence in the U.S. economy has fallen to its lowest level in four years. The expectations index, which reflects the short-term outlook six months ahead, dropped to a level considered a signal of recession, marking its lowest point in 12 years. Analysts suggest that consumer sentiment is rapidly cooling due to concerns over economic slowdown and rising prices caused by tariffs.
On the 25th (local time), the economic research group Conference Board (CB) announced that the Consumer Confidence Index for March was 92.9, down 7.2 points from the revised February figure of 100.1. This is the lowest level in four years since early 2021 when the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
The Consumer Confidence Index also fell short of Bloomberg's forecast of 94 by 1.1 points, continuing a decline for the fourth consecutive month.
The expectations index, reflecting the short-term outlook six months ahead, dropped 9.6 points from the previous month to 65.2, marking its lowest level in 12 years. This figure is significantly below 80, a level considered a signal of an impending recession. One-year expected inflation rose from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March, reaching the highest level in two years. CB explained that consumers are concerned about recent price increases in essential household items such as eggs and the future impact of tariffs.
The Consumer Confidence Index is an indicator that provides insight into consumers' confidence in the U.S. economy, and this survey result suggests that recent consumer economic outlooks have become more pessimistic. With growing concerns over recession due to tariff policies and inflation, consumer sentiment is rapidly freezing.
CB stated, "Responses from businesses showed that inflation remains a major concern for consumers," adding, "Concerns about trade policies and tariffs have increased, and mentions of economic and policy uncertainty have risen more than usual."
The deterioration of American consumer sentiment is also confirmed by other indicators. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a representative U.S. economic indicator, fell from 64.7 in February to 57.9 in March, marking its lowest level in two years and four months since November 2022.
Stephanie Gicheard, CB's chief economist, analyzed, "The optimism consumers had about future income, which had been quite strong in recent months, has largely disappeared," adding, "This means concerns about the economy and labor market have begun to spread to consumers' evaluations of their personal situations."
Amid growing concerns over a tariff-induced recession, President Trump said at the White House the previous day in response to questions from the press about reciprocal tariffs, "We can grant exemptions to several countries." Earlier, local media such as The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Bloomberg reported that the scope and targets of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs would be narrower than expected.
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