Is Han Deok-su's Return Imminent? ... Political Calculations Become More Complex

Democratic Party Pushes Ahead with Choi Impeachment Despite Han Factor
People Power Party Welcomes, Hoping for Han's Return
Political Uncertainty Persists Even If Han Returns

The Constitutional Court's decision to prioritize ruling on the dismissal of Prime Minister Han Deok-su over President Yoon Seok-yeol has further complicated the political calculations in Yeouido. For now, the People Power Party is hopeful that the Constitutional Court's ruling will work in favor of the ruling party, assuming Prime Minister Han's reinstatement. On the other hand, the Democratic Party is intensifying pressure on the Constitutional Court by pushing forward the impeachment of Acting President and Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, who also serves as Minister of Strategy and Finance. As the ruling and opposition parties continue their extreme standoff, political uncertainty is expected to persist regardless of whether Prime Minister Han returns to office.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo attending the first hearing of the impeachment trial held at the Constitutional Court on February 19. Photo by Yonhap News

The ruling and opposition parties showed mixed reactions on the 21st to the Constitutional Court's confirmation of the impeachment ruling date for Prime Minister Han on the 24th. Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the Democratic Party, said at the party's Supreme Council meeting that day, "President Yoon, who said he would prioritize this, has not even set a ruling date, yet Prime Minister Han is being ruled on first. How many citizens would accept this?" He emphasized, "The Constitutional Court should immediately set a ruling date for President Yoon and dismiss him at the earliest possible date."

However, the impeachment process for Acting President Choi will proceed as planned. The Democratic Party announced that the five opposition parties (Democratic Party, Party for Innovation and Justice, Progressive Party, Social Democratic Party, and Basic Income Party) would submit the impeachment proposal against Acting President Choi to the National Assembly Secretariat at 2 p.m. that day. Although some analyses suggested that the Democratic Party's impeachment proposal against Acting President Choi had lost its practical significance since the Constitutional Court scheduled the ruling on Prime Minister Han's impeachment at 10 a.m. on the 24th, the party decided to proceed regardless.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, told reporters that morning, "The Constitutional Court's ruling that there is an obligation to appoint Constitutional Court justices has been ignored for three weeks," and criticized, "If the highest public official disregards the Constitution like this, can the country's order be maintained?" No Jong-myeon, spokesperson for the Democratic Party, responded to the impeachment futility argument by saying, "Regardless of changes in position, responsibility must be held, so whether Prime Minister Han returns or not, we will hold him accountable."

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is briefly lost in thought while listening to remarks at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on the 21st. Photo by Yonhap News

The People Power Party views the Constitutional Court's ruling schedule positively. Kwon Seong-dong, floor leader of the People Power Party, said at the National Assembly's floor countermeasure meeting that morning, "Prime Minister Han's return was an urgent task," and added, "Although the Constitutional Court's decision was delayed, we welcome it." He further stated, "Just as the impeachment proposals indiscriminately submitted by the Democratic Party were unanimously dismissed 8-0, this one will obviously be dismissed as well." Given that Prime Minister Han's actions as acting prime minister, such as not appointing Constitutional Court justices and exercising veto power, were intertwined with the ruling party's political interests, the ruling party is openly hopeful.

The government has not issued a separate statement, but it is expected that if Prime Minister Han returns, the opposition's pressure and workload, which have been focused on Acting President Choi, will be somewhat alleviated. A government official said, "Preparations are already underway for Prime Minister Han's return," and added, "If dismissed, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance's intergovernmental task force (TF) will naturally be disbanded."

Of course, the possibility that the Constitutional Court will rule in favor of Prime Minister Han's impeachment cannot be ruled out. A Democratic Party official argued, "Since there were acts of neglect by Prime Minister Han during the emergency martial law declaration Cabinet meeting process, there is a possibility of acceptance."

However, many in political circles and within and outside the government predict that political uncertainty will continue even after the Constitutional Court's ruling on Prime Minister Han's impeachment. If Prime Minister Han returns, he will immediately have to decide on whether to request a re-deliberation of the amended Commercial Act, which was passed by the opposition-led National Assembly plenary session, the appointment of Ma Eun-hyuk as Constitutional Court justice candidate, and the drafting of a supplementary budget. Considering Prime Minister Han's stance before the impeachment proposal, it is highly likely that he will confront the opposition, citing reasons such as bipartisan agreement. At the first hearing at the Constitutional Court on the 19th of last month, Prime Minister Han refuted all the opposition's impeachment grounds and once again emphasized the importance of bipartisan consensus.