Prime Minister Han's verdict on Monday marks the start
Lee Jaemyung's second election law trial on Wednesday
President Yoon's impeachment ruling expected afterward
High likelihood of dismissal or rejection for Han's case
Lee barred from presidential race if prison sentence is finalized
Starting with the Constitutional Court's ruling on Prime Minister Han Duck-soo's impeachment trial on the 24th, next week is expected to become a 'Judicial Super Week.' Following the Constitutional Court's decision on whether Prime Minister Han will return as acting president, the Seoul High Court will deliver the second trial verdict on June 26 for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, regarding his violation of the Public Official Election Act. Legal circles widely anticipate that the highlight?the impeachment ruling on President Yoon Seok-yeol?will likely come after Lee Jae-myung's second trial verdict. Thus, the judiciary will determine the fates of Han Duck-soo, Lee Jae-myung, and Yoon Seok-yeol in that order.
◆ Prime Minister Han's Impeachment Trial: Likely Dismissal or Rejection
The Constitutional Court held a hearing on Prime Minister Han's impeachment trial once on the 19th of last month and concluded it within 90 minutes. This suggests there were not many constitutional or legal issues to be debated. Previously, impeachment trials for other cabinet members and prosecutors dismissed by the court also ended quickly.
The National Assembly's grounds for impeaching Prime Minister Han include allegations that he conspired with and tacitly approved President Yoon's December 3rd insurrection, as well as ▲refusal of the special prosecutor law regarding Kim Kun-hee and Chae Sang-byeong ▲joint announcement of state affairs management with Han Dong-hoon and Han Duck-soo ▲avoidance of appointing a permanent special prosecutor for the insurrection ▲refusal to appoint constitutional court judges, among others.
The most notable issue concerns the emergency martial law. Professor Jang Young-soo of Korea University Law School stated, "Prime Minister Han's alleged 'co-conspirator in insurrection' status is a key issue, but since he only learned of the martial law at the Cabinet meeting and immediately opposed it, the Constitutional Court is highly likely to decide that he is not an accomplice regardless of whether insurrection occurred." A legal insider commented, "The likelihood of Prime Minister Han's impeachment being upheld is low," adding, "It seems the Constitutional Court is trying to reduce dissatisfaction regarding due process and fairness before ruling on President Yoon's case."
When the National Assembly passed the impeachment motion against Prime Minister Han, Speaker Woo Won-shik applied the quorum based on cabinet members (a majority of 151 members) rather than the presidential standard (two-thirds of all members, i.e., at least 200 seats), causing controversy. If the Constitutional Court finds this problematic, it could issue a dismissal ruling.
◆When Will President Yoon's Impeachment Ruling Be Delivered?
With the ruling date for Prime Minister Han's case confirmed first, it is widely expected that President Yoon's impeachment ruling will be postponed to the latter half of next week at the earliest. This is because the Constitutional Court rarely delivers rulings on consecutive days. June 26, the date of Lee Jae-myung's second trial verdict, coincides with a nationwide mock exam for high school students. Given the anticipated fallout from President Yoon's impeachment ruling, it is unlikely the court will choose that day. Therefore, some speculate that President Yoon's ruling could come as early as later this week. The Constitutional Court typically delivers rulings on general cases such as constitutional petitions on the last Thursday of each month, which would be June 28 in this case.
The Constitutional Court previously stated it would prioritize President Yoon's case. However, it appears this commitment has not been fulfilled. Although the reasons remain undisclosed, it suggests complex circumstances. A court official said, "Delivering rulings twice a week or on consecutive days is not impossible. While rare, this is the first time so many impeachment cases have been filed simultaneously, so precedents hold little significance."
◆If Lee Jae-myung's Second Trial Results in Disqualification, What About the Supreme Court?
Lee Jae-myung was sentenced to one year in prison with a two-year probation in the first trial last November. If this sentence is finalized, he will be barred from running in the presidential election.
Previously, the Supreme Court sent a circular to courts nationwide requesting adherence to the so-called '6-3-3 rule' for election law cases: rulings within six months for the first trial, three months for the second trial, and three months for the third trial. This is effectively the Supreme Court's declaration to comply with the 'three months for the third trial' rule. Accordingly, Lee's third trial verdict will be delivered before June 26. If the Constitutional Court decides to remove President Yoon from office, a presidential election must be held within 60 days, overlapping with Lee's second trial process and the election schedule. Political turmoil is inevitable.
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