[War & Business] Europe’s Security Self-Reliance

Security Independence Falters Amid Atlantic Alliance Rift
UK and France's Nuclear Umbrella Covers Less Than 10% of Russia's Arsenal
Security Self-Reliance Presents New Challenges for Budgets and Welfare

The headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, Belgium. Photo by AFP and Yonhap News Agency

Europe, once called the most peaceful welfare paradise in the world, is being swept up in a whirlwind of major changes. Major countries including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy have begun considering the reinstatement of conscription. The European Union (EU) has effectively forced an increase in defense spending by raising the debt limits of member states. This is because, since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. government has hinted at the possibility of withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), leaving Europe in a situation where it must now pursue 'security self-reliance.'

For 80 years after World War II, European security heavily depended on the United States. According to the British BBC, when considering total defense budgets and military costs, the amount the U.S. spent on European defense last year was $1 trillion (approximately 1,454 trillion won), while the remaining NATO member countries in Europe paid only $300 billion (approximately 436 trillion won). If the U.S. suddenly withdraws from NATO, European security would face a significant gap.

European countries condemn President Trump for taking the Atlantic alliance lightly, but in reality, they cannot solely blame the U.S. The U.S. government secured a promise from European countries in 2006 to increase defense spending. Since the global economic downturn also affected the U.S. economy, it requested European countries to allocate at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending.

However, most European countries have failed to meet this request for nearly 20 years, making various excuses. Only after the outbreak of the Ukraine war did Europe's broken tanks, which had been left unused in warehouses without maintenance, reappear. Ultimately, President Trump's threat to withdraw from NATO was a bill that would have to be paid sooner or later, regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president.

The U.S. global strategy has also completely changed from 80 years ago. From the Trump administration's perspective, Russia is no longer the Soviet Union that threatened U.S. global hegemony during the Cold War. The Soviet Union's place has been taken by China, and Russia is now seen as a partner country that helps check China from behind. This is also why the U.S. government is eager to quickly conclude ceasefire negotiations in the Ukraine war in a direction favorable to Russia.

Only now is the call for self-reliance emerging in Europe, but many challenges remain. Even excluding the nuclear umbrella and advanced weapons provided by the U.S., the invisible aids such as logistics, aviation, and satellite intelligence assets make it overwhelming to know where to start.

The United Kingdom and France have announced that they will provide a nuclear umbrella for Europe in place of the U.S. with their own nuclear weapons, but it is difficult to demonstrate deterrence as strong as that of the U.S. The combined nuclear weapons held by the UK and France total just over 500, which is only about 8% of Russia's approximately 6,000 warheads. Even if Germany or other countries start acquiring nuclear weapons now, it would take decades to rival Russia.

The struggling security independence of Europe is sounding an alarm not only for our country but for all countries allied with the U.S. It teaches that military alliances maintained for decades can change according to the interests of the other party, and ultimately, a country's security must be protected by itself.