40% of Mid-sized Companies Expect Exports to Decrease in the First Half of This Year Compared to Last Year

Four out of ten medium-sized enterprises expect export performance to decline in the first half of the year
Main reasons: global economic slowdown, unfavorable exchange rates, and intensified competition
59.3% of medium-sized enterprises have no plans to enter new markets
Top priority for export revitalization: expansion of trade and export finance support

Four out of ten medium-sized enterprises expect their export performance in the first half of this year to decline compared to the previous year.

The Korea Federation of Medium-sized Enterprises announced this on the 4th through the results of the '2025 Medium-sized Enterprises Export Outlook Survey.' The survey was conducted from December 9 to December 18 last year, targeting 462 exporting medium-sized enterprises.

According to the survey, medium-sized enterprises forecasting a decrease in exports cited 'global economic slowdown and reduced demand (75.4%)', 'deterioration of exchange rates and financial environment (44.7%)', and 'intensified competition (36.3%)' as the main factors for performance decline. Additionally, 59.3% of medium-sized enterprises have not even planned to enter new countries.

While 61.3% of medium-sized enterprises expected an increase in export performance in the first half compared to the previous year, the largest portion, 31.4%, responded that the increase would be less than 5%. The expectation of an increase of 5% or more was only 29.9%.

Medium-sized enterprises responded that the appropriate exchange rate range to secure profits is 'between 1,375 won and less than 1,400 won (23.8%)'. The average won-dollar exchange rate for 2024 is 1,364 won, and the current exchange rate as of March 4, 2025, is 1,463.5 won.

An official from the Federation of Medium-sized Enterprises stated, "Even among the 38.7% of medium-sized enterprises forecasting a decline in exports, it was confirmed that they are continuously seeking strategies such as diversifying export countries, improving quality and adjusting prices, and increasing the domestic market share," adding, "Systematic policy support tailored to the needs on the ground must be expedited to prevent the erosion of medium-sized enterprises' export competitiveness."

Furthermore, medium-sized enterprises reported experiencing export difficulties in overseas markets including major export countries such as the United States (51.9%), China (44.4%), Japan (28.8%), and Vietnam (27.9%), citing 'intensified local and global market competition (51.7%)', 'import regulations and trade barriers (34.8%)', 'legal and administrative issues such as customs and contracts (17.5%)', and 'instability in local distribution and logistics (15.6%)'.

The top priority task for revitalizing medium-sized enterprises' exports across all industries was identified as 'expansion of trade and export finance support (54.5%)'. This was followed by 'reduction of import tariffs on key raw materials and parts (37.0%)' and 'export vouchers and overseas marketing support (33.5%)'.

Lee Hojun, Executive Vice Chairman of the Federation of Medium-sized Enterprises, said, "Despite 38.7% of medium-sized enterprises forecasting a decline in export performance, it is hopeful for our economy that 40.7% of medium-sized enterprises still plan to enter new markets," adding, "In addition to strengthening trade and export finance support and reducing import tariffs, it is necessary to broadly collect various difficulties based on specific opinions from the field to establish a more effective support system."