In 5 Years, South Korea's Population Decreased by 450,000... The Only Place That Increased?

Population Down by 120,000 Last Year
Sejong City Only Region with Population Growth

Although the number of births last year saw a 'surprising' rebound, it was insufficient to halt the population decline. Over the past five years, natural population decrease?where the number of deaths exceeds the number of births?continued, resulting in a total population reduction of 456,000.

Medical staff are caring for a newborn in the neonatal unit at Ain Hospital in Michuhol-gu, Incheon.

According to the National Statistical Portal (KOSIS) of Statistics Korea on the 3rd, the population of South Korea decreased by 120,000 last year. The number of births was 238,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous year, but the number of deaths (358,000) far exceeded this.

South Korea's natural population decline began in 2020. Starting with a decrease of 33,000 in 2020, it rose to 57,000 in 2021, 124,000 in 2022, 122,000 in 2023, and maintained the 120,000 range for three consecutive years including last year. Over five years, about 0.9% of South Korea's population (51,217,000 as of December last year) has decreased.

By region, Sejong City was the only area where the number of births exceeded deaths, resulting in a natural increase of 1,000 people. The other 16 metropolitan cities and provinces all experienced natural decreases.

Compared to the past, the population decline trend is even more pronounced. Looking at five-year intervals, there was a natural population increase of 2.33 million from 1990 to 1994, but the growth steadily slowed to 1.436 million from 2000 to 2004, and 984,000 from 2010 to 2014. From 2015 to 2019, it decreased further to 396,000, and since 2020, it has shifted to a decline.

Despite a temporary rebound in the birth rate, the prevailing outlook is that the long-term population decline trend is likely to continue. According to Statistics Korea's future population projections, South Korea's population is expected to decrease from 51.67 million in 2022 to 51.31 million in 2030 based on the median projection, and further decline to 36.22 million by 2072. This is similar in scale to the population level in 1967.

The National Assembly Budget Office recently analyzed in its long-term fiscal outlook that if the low population scenario materializes, the national debt ratio could rise to 181.9%, which is 9.0 percentage points higher than the median projection of 173.0%.