Ukraine’s Only 'Trump Card': The Mineral Agreement
Determined to Secure Firm U.S. Security Guarantees
Zelensky Expresses Willingness for Continued Talks with President Trump
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, is speaking at a press conference held in Kyiv, Ukraine, on the 26th (local time). / EPA·Yonhap News
On the 28th (local time), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, pressured that the success or failure of the mineral agreement depends on President Trump. This is interpreted as Zelensky’s determination to secure a promise of "firm U.S. security guarantees" from the United States before concluding the mineral agreement, which is Ukraine’s only 'trump card' with the U.S., against Russia.
According to foreign media such as Reuters and France24, President Zelensky said at a press conference on the 26th, "This agreement could be a tremendous success or it could quietly pass," emphasizing, "A conversation with President Trump is important to achieve great success." He explained that negotiations are still ongoing and the visit is being coordinated.
During this U.S.-Ukraine meeting, an agreement outlining directions for economic cooperation between the two countries, including mineral resources and U.S. security guarantees, is expected to be signed. The clause related to the 'provision of mineral resources worth $500 billion (about 716 trillion won)' demanded by President Trump, which had drawn significant criticism from Ukraine and the international community, is reportedly excluded. According to the final agreement obtained by the UK’s Financial Times (FT), Ukraine will contribute 50% of the revenues generated from future profits related to state-owned mineral resources such as oil and gas and logistics to a fund. Some of the fund’s profits will be invested back into Ukraine. Details such as the scale of U.S. equity investment and joint ownership transactions will be decided through further negotiations. The agreement does not include a requirement for Ukraine to repay double the amount of U.S. support in the future.
President Zelensky, seemingly considering the concerns of the Ukrainian people, mentioned that "there is no mention in the draft agreement of guaranteed returns to be provided to the U.S. side," explaining, "We are not debtors, and the agreement does not say that we owe $50 billion or $35 billion. That would be unfair."
The problem is that provisions regarding U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine were also excluded from the agreement. In fact, the copy of the agreement dated February 25 obtained by Reuters only contains the statement that "the U.S. government supports Ukraine’s efforts to secure security guarantees to establish sustainable peace." U.S. security guarantees have been a consistent demand from Ukraine since President Zelensky proposed the mineral agreement. This is because Ukraine remains anxious that Russia might invade again even after the agreement is signed. President Zelensky emphasized, "The success of the agreement depends on whether the U.S. guarantees Ukraine’s future security."
On the other hand, the White House has effectively rejected the demand, stating that even without specific security guarantees, the economic benefits the U.S. gains from Ukraine alone can deter future Russian aggression. Mike Waltz, U.S. National Security Advisor, pressured President Zelensky to sign the agreement during an interview with Fox News on the 23rd, asking, "Is there anything better than Ukraine establishing an economic cooperation relationship with the U.S.?"
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