US Fed's Goolsbee on Rising Inflation Expectations: "It's Just One Month of Data"... Easing Concerns

"It takes 2 to 3 more months to see the numbers"
Attention on January Core PCE Inflation... Expected to Decline for the First Time in 7 Months

Austin Goolsby, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, recently stated on the 23rd (local time) that the rise in consumers' inflation expectations is "just one month of data."

In an interview with News Nation that day, President Goolsby said, "It was not a good number," and added, "It takes at least 2 to 3 months to calculate the figures."

According to a University of Michigan survey on the 21st, consumers expected inflation to rise by 4.3% one year from now. This is the highest figure since November 2023. The five-year inflation expectation was 3.5%, the highest since 1995.

President Goolsby's remarks can be interpreted as meaning that there is no need to overreact to a single indicator amid growing market concerns following a recent rebound in inflation and rising inflation expectations. Last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-over-year, exceeding both the previous month's figure and market expectations (both 2.9%).

The market is focusing on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to be released on the 28th. According to Bloomberg News, the core PCE price index for January is expected to have risen 2.6% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since June 2024. The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Fed. The December increase was 2.8%.