Polymarket Gains Fame for Predicting Trump's Victory
World's Largest Betting Platform Now Focuses on President Yoon's Impeachment
The world's largest betting site, Polymarket, predicted the likelihood of President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment being upheld at over 75%.
Founded in 2020 by Shane Coplan in the United States, Polymarket is the world's largest blockchain-based betting platform. Investors can predict outcomes related to ▲election results ▲cryptocurrency prices ▲pop culture trends ▲global events, among others.
Polymarket gained fame for its accurate predictions on political matters such as President Joe Biden's decision not to seek re-election and Donald Trump's choice of JD Vance as his running mate.
The question regarding President Yoon's impeachment was opened immediately after the emergency martial law on December 3. This betting focused solely on whether the National Assembly would pass the impeachment motion, regardless of the Constitutional Court's later decision.
The probability surged to 80% at the time of the impeachment motion's passage, then dropped below 50% in January. On the 18th, it rose again to 84%, fluctuating between 75% and 80% since then.
As of 10:25 AM on the 23rd, Polymarket forecasted a 75% chance that President Yoon would be impeached and removed from office before April in response to the question, "Will President Yoon be in office before April?" The total betting amount also increased to $5,680,502 (approximately 8.2 billion KRW).
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court has scheduled April 25 as the final hearing date for President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment trial. During the 11th hearing, evidence will be examined and final statements heard before concluding the trial.
Considering that deliberation and judgment drafting usually take about ten days after the conclusion of hearings, the ruling is likely to be announced between the first and second weeks of March. Previously, former President Roh Moo-hyun's impeachment ruling was delivered 14 days after the hearing ended, and former President Park Geun-hye's ruling came 11 days later.
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