Impeachment Trial Verdict in Mid-March, What Is the Only Variable? [AK Radio]

Oral Arguments to Conclude on the 25th, Ruling Expected Around March 10
Ma Eun-hyuk's Appointment Remains the Only Variable
Both Ruling and Opposition Parties Accelerate Behind-the-Scenes Presidential Election Preparations

The Constitutional Court has entered the final stage of the oral arguments for the impeachment trial of President Yoon Seok-yeol. After concluding the 10th hearing on the 20th, the Court announced that it will hold the 11th hearing on the 25th to hear the final statements from both sides and President Yoon Seok-yeol himself, thereby concluding the oral arguments. This marks the end of the hearings 73 days after the National Assembly passed the impeachment motion and submitted it to the Court. Compared to the 50 days taken during former President Roh Moo-hyun’s impeachment trial and 81 days during former President Park Geun-hye’s, this is a moderate duration.

After the conclusion of the oral arguments, the process will proceed with the deliberation phase where the Constitutional Court justices discuss the case, followed by the verdict, and then the official announcement of the ruling. In the case of former President Roh Moo-hyun, 14 days elapsed between the end of oral arguments and the verdict, while for former President Park Geun-hye, it took 11 days. If the oral arguments conclude on the 25th, the impeachment ruling is expected around March 10. If the impeachment is upheld, a presidential election must be held within 60 days under current law, making it highly likely that the election will take place around May 10.

On the 20th, the 10th hearing for President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment trial is being held at the Constitutional Court. Photo by Joint Press Corps

The only variable is the appointment of Ma Eun-hyuk as a Constitutional Court justice nominee. Although the National Assembly has approved Ma Eun-hyuk’s confirmation, Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok has not yet appointed him. Speaker Woo Won-shik of the National Assembly has claimed this is unconstitutional and has filed a jurisdictional dispute trial with the Constitutional Court.

If Ma Eun-hyuk is appointed before the conclusion of the oral arguments, a procedure to renew the oral arguments by presenting the previous arguments to the newly appointed justice must be conducted. In this case, President Yoon Seok-yeol’s side is likely to take the position of “as long as it is done within 180 days, let’s do it thoroughly.” Moreover, the terms of Justices Moon Hyung-bae and Lee Mi-seon expire on April 18. If the renewal procedure takes a long time, the impeachment ruling could be significantly delayed.

There is no precedent for the appointment of Ma Eun-hyuk after the conclusion of oral arguments but before the ruling, so uncertainty remains. In this case, options such as proceeding with the ruling with only eight justices or delaying the ruling schedule to include the newly appointed justice may be considered. The final decision will likely be made through a meeting of the Constitutional Court justices. Currently, considering the need to avoid confusion in the impeachment trial process and domestic and international circumstances, it is expected that Ma Eun-hyuk will be appointed after the impeachment ruling.

There are voices within the People Power Party calling for measures to enable centrist expansion. Yonhap News

The People Power Party officially maintains the stance of “remaining passive until the impeachment ruling is issued.” However, behind the scenes, presidential candidates are showing various movements such as participating in debates, creating a gap between the official position and actual behavior. At a seminar hosted by the People Power Party’s Strategic Planning Special Committee on the 20th, Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy argued that “the People Power Party should prepare Plan B.” Professor Shin emphasized that the moderate voter base will play an important role in this presidential election and that the People Power Party urgently needs to prepare alternatives.

A People Power Party lawmaker attending the seminar mentioned, “We feel a sense of crisis as Lee Jae-myung is aiming for the center with a ‘rightward shift,’ and the People Power Party must quickly present ways to expand its appeal.” One reason for the passive stance of the People Power Party’s presidential candidates is their caution toward President Yoon Seok-yeol and his strong supporter base, as well as a psychological reluctance to be criticized (so-called “resentment penalty”) for treating the election as a foregone conclusion before the impeachment ruling is issued.

The Democratic Party of Korea has officially started preparations for the presidential election by holding the launch ceremony of the National Women's Committee. Yonhap News

The Democratic Party has already been steadily preparing for an early presidential election. Yesterday, it held the inauguration ceremony of the National Women’s Committee and is organizing its nationwide structure by function and organization. It is also aiming to expand toward the center through supplementary budgets and income tax reductions, and party leader Lee Jae-myung is positioning himself as a “moderate conservative,” employing a strategy to target not only the Democratic Party’s support base but also supporters of the People Power Party.

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Summarizing various opinion polls conducted this year reveals three consistent trends. First, the public opinion favoring “regime change” outweighs that favoring “regime maintenance.” Second, the opinion supporting “upholding the impeachment” of President Yoon Seok-yeol is higher than that supporting “rejecting the impeachment.” Third, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung maintains the top position in presidential candidate support. If an early presidential election becomes a reality, attention will focus on what measures the ruling and opposition parties will propose within the short 60-day period to change or solidify the political landscape.