[Centrist Analysis] 'Support for Impeachment and Regime Change' Trend [AK Radio]

Recent major public opinion polls consistently show a tendency among the moderate group to support impeachment and prefer a change of government. Hankook Ilbo reported the integrated analysis of responses from 1,190 individuals who identified as moderates in the Korea Gallup polls conducted from January to February (weeks 2, 3, and 4 of January, and week 2 of February). Among moderate respondents, 67% supported impeachment while 27% opposed it, showing a 40 percentage point gap. Support for government change was 56%, with 31% favoring the continuation of the current administration, a difference of 25 percentage points. Hankook Ilbo analyzed that the trend has been maintained at a consistent 6 to 4 ratio. This indicates that while the political sphere has been focused on hardline supporters, the opinion of the moderate group has remained steady.

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In a survey conducted by Realmeter commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper (February 13?14, nationwide, 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, 95% confidence level with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points), the moderate group showed 57.8% support for government change and 38.5% for government continuation, a gap of 19.3 percentage points. Support for the People Power Party among moderates has been declining for three consecutive weeks. Similar results appeared in the NBS (Embrain Public, K-stat, Korea Research, Korea Research) national index survey conducted from February 10 to 12 (100% mobile phone virtual number telephone interviews, sampling error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate 21.9%. For details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website). Among moderate respondents, preference for government change was 63%, with 29% favoring government re-creation, and regarding impeachment, 69% believed it should be upheld while 29% thought it should be dismissed, showing a 40 percentage point gap. These figures closely match those of the Korea Gallup survey.

In the case of the People Power Party, recent actions centered on hardline supporters, such as President Yoon Seok-yeol’s detention center visits and demands for constitutional court justices’ resignation, are analyzed to be accelerating the defection of moderates. Within the party, there are concerns that if an early presidential election is held, expanding the moderate base will be difficult due to the tight schedule.

Despite showing a favorable trend among moderates, the Democratic Party of Korea’s leader Lee Jae-myung has not been able to overcome the 30% support rate ceiling. This indicates that the moderate group’s preference for the Democratic Party does not directly translate into support for Lee Jae-myung.

As the impeachment ruling date approaches, if an early presidential election materializes, the choice of the moderate group is expected to be a key variable determining the outcome. This holds even greater significance given the current tight support rates between the ruling and opposition parties. Both parties are working to solidify their support bases while also grappling with strategies to expand the moderate group.