Why Saudi Arabia, Not Switzerland, Became the Venue for Ukraine Ceasefire Talks [AK Radio]

Switzerland Breaks Neutrality by Joining Sanctions Against Russia
Saudi Arabia Rises as Mediator in U.S.-Russia Negotiations

It has been reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon hold a summit in Saudi Arabia. Working-level officials from both countries have already arrived on site and begun preparations for the meeting, and the Saudi side is also actively preparing. This summit is expected to focus primarily on negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, drawing significant attention from the international community. Notably, the choice of Saudi Arabia as the venue by the two leaders is seen as a symbolic event reflecting recent changes in the global political landscape.

Traditionally, U.S.-Russia summits have been held in neutral countries such as Switzerland. In fact, President Biden and President Putin met in Geneva, Switzerland, in 2021. However, the decision to hold this summit in Saudi Arabia is analyzed as reflecting the rapidly changing international situation following the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022. The participation of traditional neutral countries in sanctions against Russia has also limited the venues where the two leaders can meet, which has been a major factor.

Switzerland, which has maintained neutrality for over 200 years since 1815, broke this tradition by joining sanctions against Russia, making it no longer suitable as a meeting place between the two countries. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, despite being the United States' largest ally in the Middle East, has not joined the sanctions against Russia and has maintained cooperative relations with Russia. Although the U.S. government pressured Saudi Arabia to expel Russia from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+), Saudi Arabia refused and continued its cooperation with Russia. Saudi Arabia's independent diplomatic stance is interpreted as an attempt to seek a new role amid changes in the international situation.

In particular, Saudi Arabia has recently emerged as a key diplomatic channel between the West and Russia. In July 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted an international conference on a peace plan for Ukraine in Jeddah, and in August of the same year, it mediated and successfully facilitated prisoner exchange negotiations between the U.S. and Russia. Crown Prince Bin Salman’s role in this process has attracted attention, as he has maintained personal friendships with former President Trump and President Putin and acted as a mediator. Recently, Saudi Arabia has also been focusing on expanding its diplomatic influence alongside hosting international sports events. Efforts to enhance its status in the international community continue, especially through attracting mega sports events such as football and golf.

The background to Saudi Arabia maintaining relations with Russia involves complex geopolitical factors. Russia is geographically adjacent to the Middle East and has exerted considerable influence in conflicts such as the Syrian civil war, the Iraq war, and the Israel-Iran conflict. Particularly, Russia is a strategically important partner for Saudi Arabia as a major power capable of militarily counterbalancing Iran. Since the Soviet era, Russia has bordered northern Iran through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and is connected to eastern T?rkiye through Georgia and Azerbaijan, giving it significant influence in the Middle East. This geographical proximity is a key factor enabling Russia to directly impact security issues in the region.

Economically, Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and a country that requires close cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the oil market. Although the two countries competed for dominance in the oil market during 2017-18, both suffered significant losses and eventually reconciled. Since then, they have maintained a cooperative relationship in the oil market, coordinating their interests. The importance of their cooperation in adjusting production to stabilize international oil prices is particularly emphasized.

Meanwhile, the traditional alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is no longer as strong as before. This is closely related to the U.S. Middle East exit strategy that began during the Obama administration. As the U.S. achieved energy independence through shale gas development, its dependence on Middle Eastern oil plummeted from 80% to less than 2%. Meanwhile, China has emerged as the largest customer, importing over 30% of Saudi oil. Consequently, Saudi Arabia no longer views the U.S. as a major oil importer but rather as a competing oil producer. Furthermore, the Biden administration’s designation of Saudi Arabia as an authoritarian regime and restrictions on some advanced weapons exports have further strained relations. However, considering the close ties during the Trump administration, there is speculation that Trump's potential re-election could be a variable in improving U.S.-Saudi relations.

AFP·Yonhap News

Although the main agenda of this summit will be negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, it is expected that issues concerning the Middle East will also be discussed significantly. Russia’s stance is anticipated regarding former President Trump’s recent proposal to develop resorts following the occupation of the Gaza Strip. Additionally, improving Israel-Iran relations, which lie behind the Israel-Hamas conflict, is expected to be a key topic. Given the recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, discussions between the two leaders are expected to have a significant impact on regional stability.

Especially with Israel unofficially possessing nuclear weapons, the issue of Iran halting its nuclear development is the greatest concern for Middle Eastern countries. There are concerns that if Iran becomes the region’s second nuclear power, the security situation in the Middle East could become even more complicated. The resumption of nuclear negotiations with Iran, which were suspended due to the Israel-Hamas clashes, is also expected to be an important topic. Saudi Arabia is reportedly hoping that this summit will lead to substantive discussions not only on ending the Ukraine war but also on improving security conditions in the Middle East.

Experts predict that this summit could be a crucial turning point in ending the Ukraine war and addressing security issues in the Middle East. If Saudi Arabia’s role as a mediator is successful, its status on the international diplomatic stage is expected to be further enhanced.