[Good Morning Stock Market] US Stock Market Fear Eases on Trump Tariff Suspension... Domestic Export Stocks Expected to Rebound

On the 4th, the domestic stock market is expected to rebound, centered on export stocks hit directly by tariff risks such as semiconductors and automobiles.

On the 3rd (local time), in the New York stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Index), focused on blue-chip stocks, closed at 44,421.91, down 122.75 points (0.28%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index, centered on large-cap stocks, fell 45.96 points (0.76%) to 5,994.57, and the Nasdaq Index, focused on tech stocks, closed down 235.49 points (1.2%) at 19,391.96. The New York stock market, which started sharply down that day, eased its losses after news that tariff measures were postponed for one month.

AFP Yonhap News

By stock, automobile stocks with factories in Mexico, Canada, and China showed notable declines. General Motors (GM) and Tesla's stock prices fell by 3.15% and 5.17%, respectively, while auto parts maker Aptiv and engine manufacturer Cummins also recorded declines in the 2% range. Big tech companies such as Apple (-3.4%) and Nvidia (-2.8%) were also hit by uncertainties in tariff policies and trade tensions.

Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, explained, "The worst-case scenario has been avoided, but the Trump tariff risk still has a high potential to cause instability in financial markets at any time," adding, "If negotiations between the US and China leaders do not proceed properly, there remains a risk of implementing a 10% tariff on China and further increases in tariff rates."

However, some opinions are gradually emerging that US President Donald Trump's tariff measures are a 'negotiation card' and that investors do not need to overreact. Reflecting this, Bitcoin, which had collapsed to the 91,000-dollar range the previous day, recovered to the 100,000-dollar level within a day. The won-dollar exchange rate, which had surged to 1,472.50 won per dollar during the day, also narrowed its rise to the low 1,460 won range in overnight trading.

On this day, the domestic stock market is expected to rebound, centered on export stocks directly hit by tariff risks such as semiconductors and automobiles. The previous day, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ closed sharply down by 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively, as semiconductor, automobile, and secondary battery-related stocks showed weakness amid escalating trade tensions following President Trump's tariff imposition decision.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Volatility in the stock market will remain high for the time being due to news flow related to Trump's tariffs," but also diagnosed, "It is appropriate to avoid strategies that reflect scenarios like the full-scale trade war with China in 2018 in stock prices." The improvement in the US January Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing new orders index from 52.1 to 55.1, which affects Korean export stocks' profit forecasts with a time lag, is also expected to act as a rebound driver.

The rise in domestic software companies' stock prices is also noteworthy. One researcher evaluated, "It is notable that Palantir is recording a sharp rise in after-hours trading," adding, "This is a factor that maintains the AI software narrative generated by DeepSikro, so it is expected to have a positive impact on software companies' stock prices." Palantir's stock price is rising about 23% after market close as it presented fourth-quarter results and guidance exceeding market expectations.