[Click eStock] "Gwanse Risk Does Not Greatly Shake Risk Asset Preference"

Although tariff risks following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump have increased volatility, securities industry analysis shows that the preference for risk assets has not significantly weakened.

On the 3rd, Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, stated, "It is clear that Trump's tariff policies will have a negative impact on the global economy and financial markets, but the extent of the repercussions should be observed more cautiously."

President Trump decided to enforce a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese products starting from the 4th. This dampened market expectations for delays or easing of tariff policies. Consequently, the financial market saw a strengthened preference for safe-haven assets. The dollar and gold showed strength, while stock prices and Bitcoin prices underwent corrections.

However, there is a diagnosis that it is necessary to further confirm whether the tariff imposition will be prolonged. Researcher Park explained, "Although President Trump said 'this is not for negotiation,' Goldman Sachs has suggested that considering opposition from major companies such as automobile and energy firms, the tariff imposition might be temporary. There also appears to be consideration to minimize the economic shock to the U.S. The reduction of import tariffs on crude oil to 10% is also seen as a related measure."

The expansion of tariff-imposed target countries and additional increases in tariff rates should also be monitored. Likely future targets for tariffs include the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and there is a possibility of further tariff rate increases on China. Researcher Park pointed out, "A summit meeting between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is scheduled for this week. Depending on the negotiation outcomes regarding tariffs and exchange rates at the summit, it could serve as an important benchmark to assess President Trump's future tariff policies or tariff risks."

The early-year rally in European stock markets and the stabilization of Bitcoin prices were also noted as factors to watch. If the rebound momentum of the EU economy strengthens due to the continuation of the interest rate cut cycle and the euro's extreme weakness, it is analyzed that the Trump risk will be somewhat alleviated.

Additionally, Researcher Park emphasized, "The stabilization of Bitcoin prices and the decline in oil prices are also positive signals." He added, "Although the price of Bitcoin, a representative risk asset, has undergone some correction, it is not a decline to be concerned about. This suggests that liquidity is still alive and expectations for technology stocks have not been significantly shaken. If there is no major change in oil price trends despite President Trump's crude oil tariff imposition, it can be interpreted as reflecting that market concerns about tariff risks are not significant."