"North Korea Shows No Unusual Activity but Continues ICBM Launch Preparations... Strengthening Readiness"

Although the North Korean military has not shown any unusual movements such as provocations against South Korea ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, it has been revealed that preparations for launching reconnaissance satellites and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are ongoing.

The military noted that while there have been no cases of provocations by the North Korean military on Lunar New Year’s Day in the past, considering the recent pattern of selective surprise provocations based on their own needs, surveillance and readiness will be strengthened during the holiday period.

Yonhap News

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the 24th, since U.S. President Donald Trump took office on the 20th, North Korea has not shown any imminent signs of missile launches. Previously, North Korea launched a hypersonic missile and a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) on the 6th and 14th, respectively, before President Trump’s inauguration.

However, the military assesses that North Korea continues preparations for launching reconnaissance satellites and ICBMs. It also judges that SRBMs and cruise missiles (CMs) remain in a state ready for surprise launches at any time.

There have been no detected provocations by the North Korean military beyond missile launches. The North Korean military’s frontline “border line fortification” work was suspended at the end of last year for winter training. North Korea has been conducting winter training normally since December last year. The work is expected to resume around March to April after the thawing season and winter training.

At the Kaesong Industrial Complex Comprehensive Support Center, material removal and export activities have been ongoing for over a month since mid-December last year. The military is intensively monitoring various possibilities, considering the June 2020 case of the joint inter-Korean liaison office explosion.

Although no unusual provocations have been detected around the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea, close attention is being paid to the possibility of provocations aimed at nullifying the NLL under North Korea’s so-called “maritime border line” claim.

Regarding balloons carrying waste and garbage, no additional launches have occurred since November 28 last year, but preparations for dispersal have been continuously detected at multiple balloon launch bases, indicating a state of readiness at all times. Loudspeaker broadcasts continue without significant change for more than 10 hours daily at about 40 locations in the frontline area. The military is tracking related trends, anticipating the possibility of expanded broadcast times and increased noise levels targeting residential areas during the Lunar New Year holiday.

Low-intensity GPS signal jamming by North Korea, seen as part of strengthening air defense posture in adjacent land and sea areas, has continued for over three months. This has caused reception disruptions for South Korean naval vessels, civilian aircraft, and ships. Currently, the jamming is concentrated in the northwestern island frontline area, and the military is cooperating with related agencies to prepare for potential public impact.

North Korea is observing domestic situations in South Korea, such as the December 3 emergency martial law incident and the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, while focusing its capabilities from the beginning of the year on enhancing achievements in the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the final year of the five-year plan for defense and economic development through continuous missile launches, construction of local factories, and mobilization of military units for flood recovery efforts.

Additionally, the military assesses that North Korea is accelerating follow-up measures and preparations for additional troop deployments related to the Russia-Ukraine war. This is due to the occurrence of numerous casualties and prisoners of war after about four months since the deployment.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, “During the Lunar New Year holiday, the North Korean military will continue winter training while strengthening its alert posture and will observe a holiday break on January 29. Although there have been no provocations on Lunar New Year’s Day in the past, unlike before, recently they have conducted selective surprise provocations regardless of holidays such as Chuseok and Lunar New Year based on their own needs. Therefore, we will not rule out the possibility of provocations and will strengthen surveillance and readiness during the holiday period.”