[2025 Liquor Market] ① Double Hardship of Consumer Slump and Political Instability... Whiskey Bowing Its Head

Last Year, Whiskey Imports Fell 10% in Volume and 4% in Value
Scotch and Bourbon Weaken... Japan and Taiwan Show Strength
Whiskey Market Expected to Polarize This Year

Last year, the whiskey market shrank significantly. This is attributed to a decrease in demand caused by an oversupply following rapid growth in imports over recent years, combined with an economic downturn and political instability leading to a consumption slump.

Yonhap News

According to customs export-import trade statistics on the 21st, the domestic whiskey import volume, including Scotch, Bourbon, and Rye, was 27,441 tons last year, down 10.3% from 30,586 tons the previous year. Whiskey imports had rapidly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, surpassing 20,000 tons in 2022 and continuing to rise in 2023, exceeding 30,000 tons for the first time and setting a record high since statistics began in 2000. However, it retreated within a year, falling back to the 20,000-ton range.

Import value also saw a slight decrease. Last year, the domestic whiskey import value was $249.21 million (approximately 363 billion KRW), down 4.0% compared to $259.67 million in 2023. Whiskey import value, which was around $132.46 million (approximately 193 billion KRW) in 2020, nearly doubled within two years, reaching $266.84 million (approximately 388 billion KRW) in 2022, before declining for two consecutive years amid a highball craze that drove volume-based growth.

The reduction in domestic whiskey import volume last year is seen as a correction following rapid growth over recent years. Previously, the domestic whiskey market had steadily contracted due to reduced working hours from the introduction of a five-day workweek and a 52-hour workweek, as well as decreased entertainment demand following the enactment of the Improper Solicitation and Graft Act (Kim Young-ran Act) in 2016. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a new drinking culture centered on home drinking and solo drinking, with whiskey leading the rebound.

In particular, in 2023, whiskey highballs, which are easy to drink, became the dominant drinking method, driving increased demand for relatively affordable whiskey and ultimately setting a new record for the highest import volume. However, the rapid increase in import volume over a short period raised the baseline, and with the economic downturn dampening consumer sentiment, demand decreased not only in the dining and entertainment markets but also within households, causing the import growth trend to pause. Additionally, political uncertainty caused by the impeachment crisis amid internal strife at the end and beginning of the year also contributed to consumers tightening their wallets.

An industry insider commented, "This can be seen as a reaction to the rapid growth during the pandemic period," adding, "It is realistically difficult to maintain double-digit growth every year, so the slowdown in import growth is a natural trend." However, they also noted, "Although it appears to have dropped sharply due to the rapid rise, overall demand has clearly increased compared to before, so there is no problem with the growth trend," and predicted, "Once issues like oversupply are resolved depending on the company, the growth trend will resume."

By country, import volumes from traditional whiskey-producing countries such as Scotland, the United States, and Ireland all shrank. Last year, imports of British whiskey, including Scotch, accounted for about 80% of total imports with 21,659 tons and $204.05 million in import value, maintaining an overwhelming position. However, both import volume and value decreased by 12.7% and 3.3%, respectively, following the overall import trend. American whiskey, led by Bourbon, retained its second place, but its import volume (3,166 tons) and value ($24.35 million) fell 13.0% and 11.2% compared to the previous year.

On the other hand, despite the overall market contraction, whiskey from East Asian countries such as Japan and Taiwan showed strong growth. Last year, Japanese whiskey imports increased 48.9% year-on-year to 1,337 tons, with import value rising 16.2% to $9.29 million. During the same period, Taiwanese whiskey imports surged 788.5% in volume (311 tons) and 46.9% in value ($3.04 million). The expansion of imports from these two countries can be viewed differently. In Japan, growth centered on relatively low-priced blended whiskeys, including 'Gakubin,' responded to the established highball demand. In contrast, Taiwanese whiskey's import growth was driven by demand for the high-priced single malt whiskey 'Kavalan.' Golden Blue, the importer of Kavalan, cited an increase in consumers preferring differentiated products such as third-world whiskeys as a key driver of Kavalan's sales growth.

Import values of other distilled spirits besides whiskey mostly declined. Brandy imports, which had exceeded $10 million annually, dropped 21.8% to $8.63 million last year, and vodka imports fell 18.3% to $4.99 million. Gin and rum imports also decreased by 36.9% and 27.0%, respectively. Conversely, imports of Chinese Gaoliang liquor rose 3.4% to $18.31 million. This increase is attributed to the steady growth of various Chinese fusion dining establishments and heightened interest in high-end products such as 'Moutai' and 'Wuliangye,' including 'Mengzhilan,' a liquor favored by Chinese President Xi Jinping, replacing lower-priced Gaoliang liquors like 'Yantai.'

Meanwhile, this year, the domestic whiskey market is expected to polarize between high-priced premium whiskey and low-priced whiskey for highballs. An industry insider predicted, "Consumers who have accumulated some whiskey drinking experience and established a stable consumer base will increasingly seek higher-quality and diverse whiskeys," adding, "Meanwhile, whiskey highballs will continue to be a popular, affordable choice." However, given the prolonged economic downturn and ongoing consumption slump, a rapid rebound in the whiskey market this year seems unlikely.