[Yongsan Report] Yoon with Nowhere to Retreat... Can He Rely on Prison Politics?

Central District Court Also Dismisses Petition... Yoon's Defense Weakened
If Detained, "Prison Politics" Expected to Intensify
Efforts to Win Over Moderates Continue... Early Presidential Election in Mind

President Yoon Seok-yeol, who was arrested by the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Agency on charges of leading a rebellion, completed his first day of investigation and arrived at Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi Province on the afternoon of the 15th. Photo by Yonhap News

President Yoon Suk-yeol has been cornered after the Seoul Central District Court dismissed his petition for a detention review. Although the Seoul Western District Court's issuance of the arrest warrant raised jurisdictional issues and sparked controversy over its illegality, it is now seen as a misstep.

With the legal defense argument weakened, President Yoon's side is expected to focus even more on public opinion campaigns that have been effective so far. Even if he is detained, the plan is to maintain political assets through "prison politics" and aim for a turnaround in the situation via a Constitutional Court impeachment trial or an early presidential election thereafter.

According to political and legal circles on the 17th, the High-ranking Officials' Crime Investigation Unit, which gained legitimacy for its investigation following the Central District Court's dismissal of the detention review, is expected to request an arrest warrant for President Yoon on the same day. Since President Yoon is refusing to testify, the likelihood of the warrant being issued is considered high.

Before and after his arrest, President Yoon tried to show a composed and confident image through a video message with a smile and a handwritten statement of about 9,000 characters. This is interpreted as an attempt to leverage public support to criticize the unfair investigation by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials and the police, and to steer the Constitutional Court impeachment trial in his favor.

Some interpret that President Yoon is preparing a strategy that practically considers an early presidential election in anticipation of an impeachment decision and a guilty verdict. When members of the People Power Party visited the presidential residence at the time of his arrest, he reportedly said, "I am leaving, but please ensure the regime's re-creation."

This is because even if a guilty verdict is handed down in the criminal trial, if the next government is led by the People Power Party, there is a possibility of release through a pardon. A ruling party official said, "If he is detained, President Yoon might also acknowledge the difficulty of his situation."

President Yoon has also shown efforts to attract not only far-right supporters but also moderate voters through Facebook messages and letters titled "A Message to the People." Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, explained, "The Facebook posts are limited to statements on disasters such as the Muan Airport accident and the Los Angeles wildfires, which is a planned message targeting moderate and undecided voters."