[Trump Again] MAGA Raising Trade Barriers... Erasing Biden, Pressuring China, and Whipping Allies

"Stronger Protectionism,"
"Erasing Joe Biden,"
and "Containing China"
Summarize Trump’s Industrial and Trade Policy

The industrial and trade policies of the second Trump administration in the United States can be summarized by three keywords: "stronger protectionism," "erasing Joe Biden," and "containing China." Based on a more robust protectionist policy than during his first term, including imposing a universal tariff of up to 20% on all imports, the administration aims to revive domestic manufacturing. At the same time, it is expected to reduce or abolish achievements of the previous Biden administration, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS and Science Act (CSA). Although China is the primary target of overt American prioritization, allies are not exempted. Uncertainty has increased significantly in the Trump 2.0 era, which prioritizes only American national interests.

"I am the Tariff Man" Trump Starts Trade War from Day One

Immediately after taking office, President-elect Trump opened the door to a second-term trade war by establishing the External Revenue Service (ERS), which will oversee tariffs and all imports from abroad. Just as the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) under the Treasury Department collects taxes from domestic companies and individuals, this new agency will collect tariffs from trading partners.

This indicates that, following his campaign promise of universal tariffs, a more radical and stronger protectionist trade war than during his first term will unfold over the next four years. Having declared a manufacturing revival, he is expected to actively use tariffs as a card to protect and foster domestic industries, including imposing high penalties on overseas supply chains.

In particular, President-elect Trump has made it clear early on that he will turn his blade even against long-standing allies if they go against American interests. A representative example is his earlier press conference remark that "Canada, which shares a border with the U.S., should be incorporated as the 51st state," and that he would use "economic coercion."

The way he uses tariffs has also become stronger and more persistent. During his first term, he focused on bilateral negotiations with trading partners to eliminate trade deficits and expand American interests through renegotiating agreements. However, in his second term, he is wielding tariff threats across a broader range of areas. Ahead of his inauguration, he pressured Mexico and Canada with a 25% high tariff, citing issues such as drugs and illegal immigration. Calling himself the "Tariff Man," Trump has been belittling the Canadian Prime Minister as a "governor" and making ambitious territorial expansion remarks, such as renaming the "Gulf of Mexico" as the "Gulf of America," day after day.

A 'presidential official photo' resembling the mugshot taken when Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, was indicted in Georgia in 2023 was released on the 16th (local time). Trump transition team

"Everything Back to Pre-Biden"... Except for Containing China

President-elect Trump plans to overturn many policies pursued by the Biden administration over the past four years. This stance is most clearly seen in the "eco-friendly" and "energy" industries. The electric vehicle tax credit within the IRA is already being discussed for possible abolition. If this happens, the Biden administration's efforts to promote electric vehicle adoption will inevitably be hindered. Trump has openly criticized various Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations that effectively mandate electric vehicle adoption, calling them "the death of the American automobile industry."

Along with this, Trump, who champions "energy dominance," plans to revoke the Biden administration's bans on new drilling off the East and West Coasts and in the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to issue a flood of executive orders promoting fossil fuels. The withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, which the Biden administration rejoined, is also practically a foregone conclusion.

The only area where the Biden administration's policies are likely to continue is in containing China. Both the newly majority Republican Party and the Democratic Party view China as the "greatest threat." President-elect Trump has already appointed "hawkish" China hardliners, including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State nominee, to key positions in his second-term administration, signaling that U.S.-China hegemonic conflicts will intensify. Rubio's Senate confirmation hearing was conducted in a generally favorable atmosphere, indicating bipartisan consensus on this issue in Congress.

Trump has already announced a 60% high tariff on China. In addition, he is expected to revoke Most Favored Nation (MFN) status and Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China to blockade it. Regulations and export controls on advanced industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) targeting China may also become more stringent. While the Biden administration pursued a "narrow yard, high fence" strategy with selective controls, the Trump 2.0 administration is analyzed to adopt a more direct and comprehensive hardline approach.