International oil prices reached a five-month high due to the impact of U.S. sanctions on the Russian oil industry.
On the 13th (local time) at the New York Mercantile Exchange, the near-month February delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at $78.82 per barrel, up 2.94% from the previous session. This is the highest level in about five months since August 12 last year. The global benchmark Brent crude for March delivery closed at $81.01 per barrel, up 1.56% from the previous session, marking the highest closing price since August 26 last year.
Oil prices have continued to rise since the U.S. government expanded sanctions on Russian crude oil on the 10th. On the 10th, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the State Department announced sanctions against Russian energy companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as their subsidiaries. Additionally, 183 vessels that had been transporting Russian crude oil to evade sanctions were also targeted.
Goldman Sachs estimated that the newly sanctioned vessels transported 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day last year. This accounts for 25% of Russia's crude oil exports. Citigroup analyzed that "up to 30% of Russia's shadow fleet could be affected, threatening up to 800,000 barrels per day."
Goldman Sachs predicted that due to the U.S. measures causing a contraction in Russian supply, Brent crude prices could rise to around $85 per barrel. There is speculation that countries such as India and China, which had been importing Russian crude, may shift their trading partners to the Middle East and Africa. Following the U.S. sanctions, it has been reported that three oil tankers carrying over 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil have been unable to dock and remain afloat in the eastern waters of China.
Bob Yager, Managing Director of Energy Futures at Mizuho Securities, stated, "There is a perception in the oil market that Indian and Chinese refiners importing Russian crude will struggle to obtain crude oil from the Middle East." Haring Chilinguirian, Head of Research at Onyx Capital, said, "Indian buyers are now likely to seek alternative suppliers in the Middle East."
However, in the crude oil market, there is also speculation that if Donald Trump is inaugurated as U.S. President on the 20th, the U.S. measures taken on this day could be withdrawn.
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