[News Terms] The 'Dunning-Kruger Effect' Amid the Impeachment Crisis

Cognitive Bias of Overestimating and Overconfidence in One's Abilities
Influence Wielded by Progressive and Conservative YouTube Channels
Explosive Increase in YouTuber Income Amid Political Turmoil

The 'Dunning-Kruger effect(Dunning-Kruger effect)' refers to the phenomenon where a person with little knowledge in a particular field overestimates their abilities or the information they have acquired, leading to overconfidence and actions based on that. This also includes cases where individuals fall into simplified conspiracy theories about complex issues without expert knowledge. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias theory proposed in 1999 by Professor David Dunning and graduate student Justin Kruger, psychologists at Cornell University in the United States, through psychological experiments.

Recently, political YouTube channels with biased perspectives have been actively operating amid the impeachment political situation. They live-stream protests and rallies for and against impeachment, produce broadcast content such as discussions on current issues, and provide viewers with their knowledge and experiences.

The area near the Presidential Residence in Hannam-dong, Yongsan-gu, Seoul [Photo by Yonhap News]

The number of subscribers to these channels has exploded over the past month. According to 'Playboard,' a YouTube statistics analysis service platform, on the 13th, the progressive camp is exerting influence mainly through YouTube channels of Democratic Party lawmakers. The subscriber count for Representative Park Seon-won's channel increased dramatically from about 20,000 before the emergency martial law on December 3 to approximately 430,000 as of that day. Additionally, subscriber numbers for Representative Kim Min-seok (30,000→260,000) and Representative Kim Byung-joo (210,000→440,000) channels also surged.

The conservative camp's channels show similar trends. The pro-Yoon YouTube channel 'Sin-ui Han Su' (God's One Move) saw its subscriber count, which was about 1.5 million, rapidly increase by about 100,000 over a month starting from early December last year. The similarly aligned YouTube channel 'Ground C' also more than doubled its subscribers during the same period (280,000→670,000). Especially in the conservative camp, since President Yoon Seok-yeol's remark on the 1st that "I am watching through real-time live YouTube," there has been a more enthusiastic response to live-streaming of rallies.

Some viewers tend to believe that the words of YouTubers who frankly say what they want to hear are the truth, rather than media that has undergone verified investigative processes. The YouTube algorithm, which recommends content similar to previously watched videos, also plays a role. Ultimately, in the midst of political turmoil, viewers' confirmation bias is reinforced, and YouTubers from each camp find it easier to consolidate their forces through political agitation. The problem is that the number of people who blindly trust the claims of these YouTube channels is increasing. The Dunning-Kruger effect explains the process of falling into the trap of overconfidence like this.

[Photo by Yonhap News]

A common trait among those caught in overconfidence is the tendency to stick to their opinions even when contrary evidence emerges. They are more likely to accept information that suits their tastes without verifying the source. Furthermore, they form groups by aligning with like-minded individuals, and the group's opinions can extend into social norms, which poses a problem.

The ones who benefit from the Dunning-Kruger effect are ultimately the YouTubers. Acts of increasing views and soliciting donations based on unverified suspicions or information are frequently carried out. Amid rampant political agitation, according to Playboard, from December 30 last year to the 5th of this month, 'Sin-ui Han Su' earned 66 million KRW and 'Ground C' nearly 30 million KRW in income from Super Chats alone in one week.