'Support for Yoon's Impeachment Drops from 75% to 64%'... Changed Public Sentiment, Reasons? [Polpol News]

Gallup Poll
Unlike 8 Years Ago, Impeachment Support Shifts Significantly
1. Political Turmoil Due to Absence of Politics
2. Impeachment Trauma
3. Psychological Check on Lee Jaemyung

Six out of ten citizens expressed support for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. Compared to three weeks ago, one out of ten people shifted from supporting impeachment to opposing it. Amid the political turmoil following the presidential impeachment, the approval ratings of the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party have rapidly narrowed. Public opinion has fluctuated compared to immediately after the impeachment.

President Yoon Suk-yeol Yonhap News

According to a Gallup Korea poll conducted from the 7th to the 9th (a wireless phone survey of 1,004 people aged 18 and over nationwide, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 16.3%), 64% of respondents supported the impeachment of President Yoon, who was impeached by the National Assembly following the declaration of martial law on the 3rd of last month. Those opposing the impeachment accounted for 32%. While support for impeachment was generally dominant, the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions showed a tie at 47% each. By generation, opposition to impeachment was stronger among those in their 60s and 70s.

Compared to a poll conducted last month (December 10?12), support for impeachment decreased by 11 percentage points, while opposition increased by 11 percentage points. At that time, support for impeachment was high across all regions and generations. However, the intensity of support for impeachment weakened overall regardless of generation or region. Gallup explained, "Support for impeachment among those in their 20s to 50s dropped from the 80% range last month to the 70% range, the 60s shifted from majority support to a split, and those aged 70 and above shifted to majority opposition."

This trend also differs from the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye eight years ago. Gallup's data shows that just before the parliamentary vote on Park's impeachment, support was at 81% and opposition at 14%, and by early March the following year, the figures had not changed significantly, standing at 77% and 18%, respectively.

Compared to the time of former President Park's impeachment, this time there are significant differences such as voices pointing out various procedural issues, the impeachment of Acting President Han Duck-soo, the indictment of Acting President and Deputy Prime Minister for Planning and Finance Choi Sang-mok, political turmoil and disputes over changes to the impeachment bill in the National Assembly, strong opposition to impeachment mainly from the far-right conservative base, confusion during the execution of the arrest warrant for President Yoon, and the failure of the first arrest warrant execution. Notably, the People Power Party has shown a unified front without signs of division, which is a marked difference. A deeper look reveals that the impeachment phase itself has played a major role in these differences.

① Political Turmoil Due to 'Absence of Politics'

Unlike former President Park's impeachment, which was effectively handled through bipartisan agreement, this impeachment was led by the opposition party with some ruling party lawmakers joining in. While Park's downfall began gradually starting with the 2016 parliamentary investigation and the so-called tablet scandal exposure on October 24, President Yoon's impeachment was completed rapidly within 11 days after the declaration of martial law, marking a swift downfall. Park was impeached after her approval rating plummeted to 5%, whereas Yoon was impeached at an 11% approval rating. The urgent political situation under martial law led to the disregard of bipartisan consensus. However, this later caused crises during the permanent and special investigations, as the ruling party opposed them and the acting president exercised veto rights, preventing bipartisan agreement.

Speaker Woo Won-shik is announcing the passage of the impeachment motion against President Yoon Seok-yeol at the 4th plenary session of the 419th National Assembly (extraordinary session) held at the National Assembly on the 14th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

Of course, the absence of politics played a significant role in this process. Jeong Seong-ho, a Democratic Party lawmaker regarded as a leader of the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction, expressed concerns about the political management. He told reporters, "Even if the president committed serious illegal acts, the Democratic Party should have actively engaged in dialogue with the ruling party, which is the representative body of the people," adding, "I think such efforts were somewhat lacking." He criticized the Democratic Party leadership for not engaging in behind-the-scenes talks with the ruling party after the double special investigation bill was rejected in a re-vote.

② Impeachment Trauma

Impeachment trauma centered around the People Power Party also played a major role.

People Power Party lawmakers are fiercely protesting Speaker Woo Won-shik during the plenary session of the National Assembly on the 27th, where the motion to impeach Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was submitted, raising issues about the quorum required for the impeachment motion to pass (majority approval of all members). Photo by Kim Hyun-min

Unlike eight years ago when the impeachment was triggered by a state corruption scandal, this impeachment crisis involving President Yoon is a much more serious matter. Moreover, with issues raised about the People Power Party's entire nomination process due to the Myeong Taekyun gate, the party appears to be caught in a domestic turmoil. Initially, some members of the People Power Party voiced opinions supporting the lifting of martial law or the impeachment motion. However, the party itself resisted as it faced a crisis of 'existence or extinction.' The People Power Party raised procedural issues at every stage of the impeachment and investigation process, leading to controversies. These procedural challenges, initially seen as 'stalling tactics,' became a source of strength as they coincided with the consolidation of the conservative base.

③ Psychological Check on Lee Jae-myung

The fact that Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, ranks first as the opposition's presidential candidate also complicates the situation. In the past, despite Park's impeachment, the ruling party had hopes of overturning the election by fielding candidates like former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. This meant that the impeachment was observed regardless of the next presidential election dynamics, but the situation is different this time. In the previous election, with a clear divide between President Yoon and Lee Jae-myung, ruling party supporters could only react strongly.

Actual party approval ratings showed significant changes. In a poll conducted three weeks later, support for the Democratic Party dropped by 12 percentage points to 36%, while support for the People Power Party rose by 10 percentage points to 34%. This is interpreted as a result of the lack of political stabilization after the impeachment crisis and the reconsolidation of the People Power Party's support base.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is speaking at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 10th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

A Gallup official diagnosed, "The confrontation between camps has intensified." The official added, "In the early stages of last month's martial law crisis, the ruling party's support did not drop significantly, and the party consistently maintained an anti-impeachment stance without signs of division, which is a major difference from the impeachment crisis eight years ago." The official also noted, "In 2016, the ruling Saenuri Party (now People Power Party) had support ranging from 29% to 34% from just after the April general election until early October, but after the state corruption scandal intensified, it dropped to 12%."

For detailed information related to the poll, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.